Statistical Measurement Of Chinese Provincial Urban-rural Integration Development

The problem of urban-rural imbalance has long restricted the economic and social development.The historical conditions,economic development and institutional environment contribute to the long-term and arduous nature of China's urban-rural integration development.With the deepening of political,cultural,social,and other institutional reforms,China has seen significant improvements in economic growth and social stability since the reform and opening up.However,the characteristic of urban-rural dual structure is still very obvious.In this context,scholars have studied the measurement methods and promotion strategies of urban-rural integration development based on qualitative and quantitative perspective.The political circles have been influenced by the development concept of western cities.Most of them have designed relevant policy systems from the perspective of cities without considering the actual situation in China.The final formation of China's urban-rural integration development road should be based on China's national conditions,especially focusing on the social grassroots.In view of this,the purpose of this paper is to comprehensively evaluate the development level of urban-rural integration in China from 2012 to 2016,and to form a theoretical system of urban-rural integration development,so as to provide a reference for the government to promote the practical work of urban-rural integration development.Firstly,the visual software CiteSpace5.5 is used to identify the hot spots of urban-rural integration development since the reform and opening up.Secondly,based on the understanding of the connotation of urban-rural integration,this paper forms a theoretical basis for evaluating Chinese provincial urban-rural integration development from the perspective of the development process and development results,and then constructs an evaluation index system.Furthermore,in order to ensure the scientific and robustness of the evaluation results,the methods of entropy and subjective weighting are used to weight each index respectively.After that,the spatial and temporal evolution law of urban-rural integration development in China is summarized by referring to the calculation results of subjective weighting method.In addition,with the help of GeoDa software,this paper also uses exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA)to analyze the geographical agglomeration characteristics of urban-rural integration development in China.Finally,the calculated comprehensive index of urban-rural integration development is used as the explanatory variable,GDP of per capita,average years of education,time autocorrelation and other factors are used as explanatory variables to construct a spatial econometric model for exploring the influencing factors of urban-rural integration development,which provides theoretical reference for provinces to formulate targeted strategy for urban-rural integration development.The results of the study on the law of dynamic change of the urban-rural integration development show that:(1)From the perspective of time dimension,the level of Chinese provincial urban-rural integration development dispalys a stable upward trend,but the overall level is still on the low side,and the growth trend of provinces within the region is consistent.(2)From the perspective of spatial dimension,the level of urban-rural integration development presents the cascade distribution law of "East,Central and West",and this distribution law is becoming more and more obvious,which indicates that the geographical position is an important factor which affects the level of urban-rural integration.(3)The rapid development of urban and rural modernization is the main driving force to promote urban-rural integration development,while the backwardness of agricultural technology and the expansion of the ecological gap between urban and rural are the main reasons why the level of urban-rural integration cannot be further improved.The results of the study on the spatial agglomeration characteristics of the urban-rural integration development show that:(1)From a static point of view,the level of urban-rural integration development has a significant positive agglomeration effect in space,and the number of low-low agglomeration areas is much larger than that of high-high agglomeration areas,which indicates that the overall development level of urban-rural integration in China is not high.(2)From a dynamic point of view,the effect of high-high agglomeration in the east is gradually strengthened,while the number of low-low agglomeration areas in the west is gradually reduced.Therefore,we should pay more attention to the problem of urban-rural integration development in the west.For example,through appropriate policy support,some provinces in the west can embark on the road of sustainable development,and then play the role of radiation.The results of quantitative study on the influencing factors of urban-rural integration development show that:(1)Agricultural technology and economic scale have significant positive effect on the urban-rural integration development,the level of industrialization and the density of regional roads play a restrictive role in the urban-rural integration development.Therefore,the government can truly achieve the connection between urban and rural society by strengthening the education of rural and promoting agricultural industrialization.(2)The time effect,spatial effect and space-time lag effect of the urban-rural integration development are significant,which indicates that there is a demonstration effect in time and space of the current level of urban-rural integration in China.The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the following two points: Firstly,this paper considers the dimension of process and result comprehensively to form the theoretical basis for evaluating the level of urban-rural integration development,which makes up for the shortcomings of the existing research in this regard;Secondly,unlike previous studies,which mostly used linear methods,this paper constructs an “index-type scoring curve” based on the current status of the provincial urban-rural integration development to pre-process index data.This method can scientifically reflect the non-linear relationship between the value level and the index value,and ensure the rationality and accuracy of the measurement results of the level of urban-rural integration development.