Research On Spatial-Temporal Pattern And Its Influential Factors Of Pollution-intensive Industry In The Yangtze River Economic Belt

Environment-friendly and resource-efficient society construction is the key to realize China’s dream,the building of ecological civilization will be a priority for all in the Third Plenary Session of the eighteen.The liberalization of trade and globalization of production result to globalization of environmental pollution,so the spatial-temporal evolution of pollution-intensive industries and its driving factors are becoming increasingly hot in regional sustainable development.Based on the statistical panel data of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from1995 to 2015,using mathematical statistics methods and spatial analysis tool of ArcGIS,this paper explores the characteristics and regularities of spatial-temporal pattern of pollution-intensive industry on a province scale,then using the software of eviews6.0 and the fixed effects model,and comes to a quantitative conclusion on the driving factors of pollution-intensive industry’s relocation.Results suggest:(1)The production value of the pollution-intensive industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is continue rising,but the speed of rising comes to undulation type of decline.The Gini coefficient of pollution-intensive industries in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is decreasing totally during the twenty years,except to the years from1998 to 2002.The time bounded by the year of 2002,the spatial distribution of the pollution-intensive industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt present an accelerated diffusion trend.All of the value of Moran’s I is positive during the year of1995 to 2015,it shows that the production value of the pollution-intensive industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt exist spatial positive correlation in certain.The value of G is positive but low during the year of 1995 to 2015,the statistical significance of Z value decreased year by year,it shows that he production value of the pollution-intensive industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt may be scattered from a few more concentrated hot spots to a few areas of concentration.As the time goes by,this distribution pattern will be more obvious.(2)It shows that the changes in Sichuan,Anhui,Jiangxi,Hubei,Hunan and Shanghai is larger than other regions,while it continue relatively stable in Jiangsu,Yunnan,Guizhou and Chongqing.The Spatial-temporal evolution of the hot spots and the second cold spots almost no change.Respectively as Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Shanghai,Anhui and Jiangxi;the second cold spots mainly from Yunnan,Sichuan,Chongqing,Hubei to Sichuan and Yunnan,then to Hunan,Hubei and Chongqing;the change of cold spots spatial-temporal evolution mainly from Guizhou and Hunan to Chongqing,Guizhou,Hubei and Hunan,then to Sichuan,Yunan and Guizhou.The gravity center of pollution-intensive industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt distribution in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,respectively as Anhui and Hubei.The gravity center of pollution-intensive industry shows a tendency to move towards the west about 1~°,the offset distance is roughly 166km,and towards the south about 20~″and27km.(3)There are many factors contributing to the relocation of pollution-intensive industry in the whole Yangtze River Economic Belt,among which the economic development level,FDI,export trade,industrial structure and environmental protection present positive correlation with the pollution-intensive industry;while labor costs,innovation capability present negative correlation with the pollution-intensive industry.The production value of pollution-intensive industry ascend of 1.20%for each percentage-point increase in per capita GDP.The production value of pollution-intensive industry decline of 0.36%for each percentage-point increase in the average wages of staff and workers;the production value of pollution-intensive industry ascend of 0.21%for each percentage-point increase in export trade;the production value of pollution-intensive industry ascend of0.08%for each percentage-point increase in foreign direct investment;Upgrading of industrial structure can inhibit the growth of pollution-intensive industry,but now its role is only 0.06,it shows that the impact of industrial structure upgrading on pollution-intensive industry transfer is smaller than other factors.There are many factors contributing to the relocation of pollution-intensive industry in the different area of Yangtze River Economic Belt,among which the economic development level,FDI,export trade and industrial structure present positive correlation with the pollution-intensive industry;while labor costs,innovation capability present negative correlation with the pollution-intensive industry.The upper,middle and lower reaches of the three regional economic development levels have a significant positive effect on pollution-intensive industry,the regression coefficients were 1.1198,1.2850,and 1.1795.The upper,middle and lower reaches of the three regional economic development levels have a negative effect on pollution-intensive industry,but we will see a significant regional difference.This effect is more obvious in the downstream area and the effect is more intense than the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River.From the perspective of international industrial transfer,the foreign direct investment relative to the export trade has little effect on the transfer of pollution intensive industries,this indicates that the Yangtze River Economic Belt is still the"pollution haven"of the international pollution-intensive industry.The government’s support for the technological innovation of the industrial sector in the lower reaches of the government effectively inhibits the development of the pollution-intensive industry,this result is different from the whole Yangtze River Economic Belt.The production value of pollution-intensive industry decline of 0.18%for each percentage-point increase in the innovation capability.Relative to the downstream areas of technological innovation,the upper and middle reaches of the government have a negative but not significant effect on the scientific and technological activities of the industrial sector.The government’s support for the environmental protection in the lower and middle reaches of the Yangtze River have a significant negative effect on the pollution-intensive industry,this result is different from the whole Yangtze River Economic Belt.But in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River have positive effect on the pollution-intensive industry,it shows that in the process of industrial gradient transfer,the area of environmental regulation becomes an important target of pollution intensive industrial transfer.The upper,middle and lower reaches of the three regional proportion of output value of heavy chemical industry have a positive effect on pollution-intensive industry,but we will see a significant regional difference.There was a significant positive correlation in the downstream area,while present a positive but not significant effect in the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River.