Application Research Of Gold Price Analysis Model In The Value Assessment Of One Gold Mining Right

The paper is written to solve the problem of the reasonable evaluation of the value of the mining right in a gold mine.After analyzing the influence factors of the value of mining right(mining right belongs to the right of mining),it is concluded that the value of mining right is reasonable or not depends on the price of the product is reasonable or not.Thus,in order to determine the reasonable price parameter of mineral products in this gold deposit,the gold price is modeled and analyzed and forecast,the modeling object is the gold price in the past 20 years,the forecast object is the gold price in the next 54 months.After the paper analyzes the factors influencing changes in the price of gold,due to the complexity of price forecasts,for the lack of the original model,through research to improve,according to different considerations,the data of gold price,nonlinear quadratic function and the cubic function regression,the gold grey theory GM(1,1)model,gold price time series Holt Exponential Smooth forecast model and ARIMA of return difference points moving average prediction model are established.After these predictions models were analyzed and found to predict the effect of their own characteristics,in order to overcome the limitations of individual models and give better prediction,the paper attempts to predict the value of a single model combined with BP neural network forecasting for results after the gold price forecast,after a combination of qualitative analysis,BP neural network combination forecasting model is better than the individual.Finally,the predict combination result of gold price is applied to valuate the result of the gold mine.Combining this gold mine’s reserves and production capacity,with the discounted cash flow calculation method,it is valuated that this gold mine of traditional mining rights assessment Wpl is 1,203.12 million,the combined forecasting Wp2 is 889.66 million,the combination of forecast evaluation result is not only more reasonable,but also is approvaled by the transaction parties,to a certain extent,it provides scientific basis and decision support for the evaluation of the value of mining right trade.