Study On Scenarios Construction And Emergency Management Of Road Transprotation Accident Of Hazardous Chemicals

With the rapid growth and development of domestic chemical industry in recent years,the transportation accidents of hazardous chemicals occurred more often.According to the different risk levels of hazardous chemicals,the consequences will be extremely complex once an accident occurs while transporting thus chemicals.Furthermore,the evolution mechanism as well as corresponding severity is quite unpredictable.Therefore,it is very difficult to carry out emergency disposal and implement timely and effectively emergency rescue.This master dissertation was based on the research of transportation accident of hazardous chemicals.The corresponding research of scenario construction and analysis is conducted,which will provide reference to formulate emergency succor plan and implement emergency countermeasures for enterprises in need of emergency management when transporting hazardous chemicals.First of all,according to the statistical analysis of road accidents in transporting hazardous chemicals from January 2010 to July 2010,the main reason which causes such accident is traffic accident,and then,the vehicles and equipment problems,human operating errors,ineffective management or even the absence of process management,environmental factors and other factors respectively.Among them,most traffic accident were attributed to vehicle rollover,rear-end collision,head-on collision and so on.Then,the accident consequences was statistically analyzed,and it was found that the products leakage was the most common accident in the transportation of hazardous chemicals,and the casualties caused by the explosion were much higher than those of other situations.Finally,according to the analysis results,the corresponding emergency rescue strategies and related suggestions are proposed.Secondly,based on the statistical results of the accident cases,the basic event sets in the road accidents of hazardous chemicals transportation is analyzed and sorted out.Delphi method is applied to estimate the impact direction and the influence extent between each basic events,which is required as the input variable of model construction.And then,combined with cross impact analysis(CIA)and explanation structure model(ISM),the CIA-ISM model of the accident is formed.Based on such model,this dissertation analyzes the events related to emergency management in sets,and taking the leakage accident of liquid chlorine(happening at Beijing-Shanghai Expressway on the March 29)as instance,the whole process of the accident is presented,and the aforementioned model is used to forecast the accident consequence,moreover the feasibility of the model is verified.On this basis,other possible accident scenarios are simulated,and corresponding analysis and deduction are carried out on such simulated situation.Finally,the generation process of the emergency decision-making scheme for road transprot accidents of hazaradous chemicals in “scenario-deal with”mode is given based on the constructed CIA-ISM scenario model.Then according to the model and the analysis results of accident cases,corresponding countermeasures and suggestions of emergency rescue are put forward,which provide a certain reference for the emergency management of road transport accidents of hazardous chemicals.