| The transportation risk of hazardous chemicals is changing dynamically.Aiming at the lack of real-time and dynamic problems of traditional risk assessment methods,a dynamic risk assessment method based on Bayesian network is proposed.Based on this method,decision support is provided for emergency disposal of accidents.Firstly,the typical road transportation accidents of hazardous chemicals in China are analyzed by using statistical analysis method,including accident forms,road section types and types of hazardous chemicals transported,and the accident scenarios,potential risk characteristics and accident damage after leakage of different hazardous chemicals are studied.Combined with binary logistic regression model,the causes,and Countermeasures of road transportation accidents of hazardous chemicals are determined Severity factors lay the foundation for building bow model and quantifying risk probability.Then,the influence factors of transportation and the evolution law of accidents are analyzed by Bow-tie model,and the prior probability and conditional probability tables are obtained by expert decision and fuzzy set-valued method.The simulation software ALOHA is used to analyze the types of accident consequences and the scope of impact,and the dynamic analysis of transportation risk is realized by monitoring the data of transportation nodes and updating the accident probability in real time.Finally,combined with the emergency drill of hazardous chemicals road transportation accident in the Winter Olympic Games,the scientific rationality of the evaluation model is verified,and the resource demand for emergency disposal of such accidents is analyzed,focusing on the demand for fire cooling water,fire-fighting dose and fire-fighting equipment in the disposal process,so as to reasonably allocate emergency materials,so as to provide reference for the risk management of hazardous chemicals road transportation.It can provide important reference for early warning and emergency preparedness. |
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