Research On The Mechanism And Control Strategy Of Serious Accidents For Chemical Industrial Park Based On Multiple Substantial Hazardous Sources

The expansion of the chemical industry park’s scale is almost accompanied by the increase of potential risks,which widely exist in transportation,production,storage and other processes.Serious accidents occurring in this kind of park are typical into HILP(high-impact low-probability)bracket.Once the accident occurs,it will cause serious impacts and influences.An in-depth study of the characteristics of the major hazard sources in the park and the evolution mechanism of the accidents helps to prevent and control losses caused by these major accidents.The main research contents include:(1)The first section is analyzing of major hazard source system structure in chemical industry parks.According to the characteristics of hazard sources,the hazardous material layer,equipment layer,and enterprise layer to tailor the structure model of hazard sources in the chemical park.This paper analyzes the hierarchical structure of multi-hazardous source systems using an interpretative structural model to clarify the mechanism of accidental causes of different hazard sources and explore the direct and in-depth causes of accidents in the park.(2)The second section is studying on the evolution mechanism of serious accidents in chemical industry park.Based on the accident chain theory,the evolution process and mechanism of serious accidents are analyzed,and the chain evolution model of serious accidents is then constructed.The key to the increase of accident losses is the verification of the expanding effect of the accident chain through the Songhua River water pollution.The mathematical model of chain evolution complex network of accidents is built;the accident case(8.12 fire and explosion)is analyzed and the different accident loss is classified and rated.All those is projected to facilitate the adoption of targeted prevention and control measures.(3)The third section is the construction of dynamic model of chain evolution of serious accidents.Based on the theory of system dynamics,the dynamic mechanism of evolution system of the major and exceptionally accidents in Chemical Industrial Park is analyzed.Integrates the characteristics of chain evolution system of accidents,considers the roles of different accidents and build the dynamic model of chain evolution system of accidents in Chemical Industrial Park in order to lay the foundation for studying the evolution characteristics of those kind of accidents in the park.(4)The forth section is research on simulation and application of the evolution system of major and exceptionally serious accidents.A National Chemical Industry Park is selected to study the system dynamics model established in this paper.This paper analyzes the degree of casualties and equipment damage under different brittle conditions,studies the influence of different rescue factors on casualty rate.Then puts forward some suggestions.(5)The last section is the prevention and control strategy and emergency rescue system for major and serious accidents.Based on different levels of accident risk prevention and control,from the equipment leakage frequency control,safety distance and capacity control,safety protection measures to protection layer design to build accident chain evolution three-prevention and control strategies.According to the complex network theory,the key processes of accident chain breaking and disaster reduction is analyzed in order to construct the accident emergency rescue system in the park and providing the strategy for reducing the accident losses and influences.