Cost-benefit Assessment And Comprehensive Air Pollution Control Plan Of Dongguan

In the past two decade,with the rapid development of economy and the acceleration of urbanization process,the problem of air pollution is becoming increasingly serious in the Pearl River Delta?PRD?.Taking Dongguan city as an example of the typical atmospheric compound pollution in PRD,this paper analyzes the temporal distribution characteristics of major air pollutants in Dongguan,the results showed that the major pollutants in Dongguan have reached the standard except PM_2.5 and O₃.Therefore,we selected the PM_2.5 and O₃ in Dongguan city as the research objects.Firstly,a WRF-CMAQ air quality simulation system was established to simulate the air quality of the PRD in 2014.Secondly,the high-dimensional kriging interpolation algorithm was used to make secondary statistical modeling of CMAQ simulation results and established RSM-PM_2.5 and RSM-O₃ two real-time response surface models which characterize the real-time response relationship between PM_2.5,O₃ concentration and pollutant emission reduction.Finally,we set up control scenarios for the three target years?2017,2020 and 2025?based on the analysis of all sources of emission projections and emission reduction potential in Dongguan City,and assessed the cost-benefit of the three control scenarios using ABaCAS-SE?Air Pollution Control Cost Benefit and Compliance Assessment System?.The research results showed that the WRF-CMAQ-RSM simulation system can better reflect the real-time response relationship between PM_2.5,O₃ concentration and pollutant emission reduction in Dongguan.According to the cost-benefit assessment results,In 2017,2020 and 2025,the concentration of O₃ in Dongguan was reduced by 10.1?g/m³,15.3?g/m³and 28?g/m³ respectively compared with 2014 baseline year,the concentration of PM_2.5 in Dongguan was reduced by 10.9?g/m³,13.5?g/m³ and 16.2?g/m³;the human health benefit/cost control rate of PM_2.5 and O₃ is around 6.8 and 1.1 respectively when the reduction rates is relatively low in 2017,while the rate of PM_2.5 and O₃ will drop down to 1.9 and 0.3 in2025 when the control rates become higher.Assessment results description,Because the unit control cost of O₃ precursors?VOCs and NO_X?is relatively higher than that of primary particles and SO₂,and O₃ has less effect on human health than PM_2.5,lead to the human health benefit/cost control rate of O₃ in dongguan city is lower than that of PM_2.5.And with the rapid increase in the proportion of pollutant emission reduction,the terminal control technologies is not suitable for the higher emission reduction rates because of poor economic feasibility.The source control policies,such as adopt cleaner production,optimize industrial and energy structure,and improve energy efficiency etc.,should be greatly pushed to get the achievements of attaining PM_2.5 and O₃ national standard in Dongguan.