Evaluation Of Air Pollution Control Measures In Hebei Province Based On The Scenario Analysis

The air pollution in China has caused serious harm to people’s life and health in recent years,especially in Hebei province.In the face of severe air pollution,our government has taken a series of measures.Based on the emission inventories in 2015,three scenarios are set,including BAU scenario,E&E scenario and E&E-joint scenario in 2025.On this basis,the air quality is simulated in Hebei province in different scenarios with WRF-CMAQ model and then the benefit of improving air quality from air pollution control policies and measures is evaluated.The death of population owing to exposure to PM2.5 in different scenarios is calculated using IER model and health benefits of improving air quality are evaluated.Meanwhile,the cost of some measures is calculated.It is expected to provide a theoretical basis for air pollution prevention and control policies in Hebei province.In terms of emissions reductions,this study result shows that the air pollution control measures can reduce emission reductions of 57.4%of SO2,43.3%of NOx,66.8%of PM2.5 and 41.6%of VOCs.The industry process source is the largest contribution to emission reductions of SO2 and PM2.5,accounted for 49.9%and 70.2%,mainly due to the iron and sintering desulfurization equipment installation and the dust removal facilities for point industry.The industrial boilers is the largest contribution to emission reductions of NOx,accounted for 44.9%,mainly due to clean energy instead of coal in industrial boliers.In terms of improving air quality concentration,PM2.5 concentration was decreased by 39.1 μg/m3,28.6 μg/m3,45.1 μg/m3 and 30.4 μg/m3 in Tangshan,Handan,Baoding and Xingtai in the E&E scenario,representing falls of 40.0%,31.0%,42.3%,30.4%;PM2.5 concentration decreased by 45.1 μg/m3,40.2 μg/m3,54.6 μg/m3 and 43.7μg/m3 in Tangshan,Handan,Baoding and Xingtai in the E&E-Joint scenario,representing falls of 50.3%,43.9%,51.2%,43.7%.In the E&E-Joint scenario,PM2.5 concentration decreased to 19.1 μg/m3,19.0 g/m3,28.3 μg/m3,meeting the Grade II standards for urban air.It is obvious that the measures of air pollution control can decrease the concentration of PM2.5.In terms of health benefits of improving air quality concentration,this study result shows that the deaths due to PM2.5 in the BAU scenario is 1,480 people less than in 2015,representing falls of 2.0%.The deaths due to PM2.5 in the E&E scenario is 10,050 people less than in 2015,representing falls of 13.5%.The deaths due to PM2.5 in the E&E scenario is 16,779 people less than in 2015,representing falls of 22.6%.There are 365-502 deaths avoided due to PM2 5 for each 1.0 μg/m3 decrease in concentrations of PM2.5.It is obvious that the policies of air pollution emission reductions out of Hebei province can reduce the loss of health due to PM2.5.