A Prediction Of Polyolefin Demand In China And Cost Analysis Of Different Routes To Polyolefin

China is the most important polyolefin trade area in the world and has the largest consumption and import amount of polyolefin.In the next few years,the capacity in China will increase quickly but the demand will grow slower,so the structural contradictions will be more and more obvious.The low-end products tend to be saturated and high-end products rely on imports heavily.There are more other problems such as poor product quality,high cost and lack of autonomous technology etc.Therefore,to forecast the polyolefin demand of China and analyze the process cost are very important in guiding the production of polyolefin.This paper predicts the demand of polyolefin in China from 2017 to 2025.Firstly,the influence factors of the polyolefin demand are analyzed.Then the elastic coefficient model,multiple linear regression model and Vector Autoregression model are built respectively with veriables.Calculation of the historical consumption of polyolefin based on three models and comparison of the relative error of the models are done.Finally,prediction of the demand of polyolefin in China by the models is completed.By 2025,the demand of polyolefin in China will be 1.5 to 2 times that of 2015.Then analyze the process cost of different routes to polyolefin including naphtha cracking,propane dehydrogenation,methanol to olefin,coal to olefin and ethane cracking routes.Results show that the imported ethane route has the biggest cost advantage,and then is coal to olefin route,the cost of other routes is positively related to the Brent oil price.Global Brent oil price is expected to rise in 2017-2025,so developing the route of ethane and coal to olefin is meaningful to reduce process cost.Finally,some suggestions on the production of polyolefin are put forward with aim at the existing problems,including develop the low-cost routes such as coal-to-olefins and ethane cracking process,research and develop the independent process technology,eliminate low-end production capacity and improve product quality and grade.