Study On Spatial Autocorrelation And It's Influence Of Industrial Exhaust Emissions In China

The problem of air pollution is one of the key factors that hinder the sustainable development of human society and restrict the survival of human beings.In the process of industrial development in our country,along with industrial development faster and faster,with industrial waste gas emissions is more and more big,the result in our country and the rest of the world face the same difficult as industrial waste gas pollution problem.In the face of the increasingly serious problem of waste gas pollution,people from all walks of life are gradually aware of the urgency and importance of industrial emission reduction and environmental protection.In this paper,the total industrial emission of 29 provinces(municipalities directly under the central government)from 1997 to 2015 was taken as the research object.First of all,the difference of industrial emission between different provinces in China is analyzed from two dimensions of time and space.Secondly,based on the analysis results of the present situation,the spatial autocorrelation method(global moran index and local moran index)was used to test the spatial autocorrelation of industrial emissions between provinces in China.Finally,using the different spatial econometric model to measure the space when the correlation between the degree of industrial emissions influence each other between provinces,on this basis,combining with our national condition the path of the effects analysis.Specific research conclusions are summarized as follows:(1)of different provinces in China industrial emissions data descriptive analysis found that,overall,in the past 20 years,all the provinces in our country industrial emissions present a significant growth,and the predicted results show that in the short term the industry exhaust emissions are still rising,at the same time,the provinces industrial emissions on the space bigger space differences.(2)from 1997 to 2015 in China by calculation of the global moran index,industrial emissions between different provinces in our country the space of a significant positive correlation,and the degree of correlation with time changing.Combined with moran scatter plot and LISA cluster diagram on the agglomeration characteristics of China's provincial industrial emissions further discovery,our country plays a significant role in the eastern region of high value space agglomeration phenomenon,and the western region on the contrary,a significant spatial phenomenon of low concentration.(3)the spatial lag model and generalized spatial autocorrelation model calculated result shows that China's provincial industrial emissions space since the correlation between to have significant influence on the industrial emissions.Spatial lag coefficient size by industrial emissions,under the condition of the other factors unchanged,adjacent provinces industrial waste gas emissions by 1%,reduces leads to this province industrial waste gas emissions reduced by 0.313%.Combined with Chinese actual conditions of different agglomeration district space since the correlation analysis of a path: high value in the concentrated area,the features of space agglomeration between provinces mainly through space direct spillover effect and high value emissions provinces adjacent provinces of active choice behavior to realize the industrial emissions of spatial autocorrelation;In the low-value agglomeration area,the spatial agglomeration between provinces is mainly caused by the joint influence of the state's aid policy to the western region and the transformation of the province's self-positioning.Above all,industrial waste gas emissions between different provinces in China since there were significant spatial correlation,in the process of promoting industrial waste gas emissions,combined with emissions differences,adopt corresponding countermeasures,make industrial waste gas emission reduction process more scientific and effective.At the same time,we should make full use of the interaction between provinces to realize the joint emission reduction of all provinces in the agglomeration area and improve the effect of emission reduction.