Research On Investment Decision Of IGCC Project Of Themal Power Entrerises Based On Multi Stage Complex Real Option

Global climate warming and energy security are the two severe challenges faced by mankind in twenty-first Century,and carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel(mainly coal)are the main factors that cause global warming.In the background of various countries taking action to reduce carbon emissions,China,as a big country in economic development,has the highest carbon emissions in the world.Therefore,the emission reduction project investment of coal-fired power generation accounts for 82% of the total electricity generation in China,which plays an important role in achieving China's carbon emission reduction commitments.As the national carbon trading market is about to start,the Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle(IGCC)project is known as the most clean coal burning project in the world in twenty-first Century.It has significant advantages of high efficiency and low carbon emissions.Under the new commercial mode of carbon emission trading,the IGCC project will be the first choice for the new generation of coal-fired power generation,and has a broad prospects for development.However,in the new business mode,how to ensure the scientificity and rationality of investment valuation and maintain the competitive ness and sustainable development of enterprises is still a pressing problem.Compared to the traditional thermal power generation projects,the IGCC project has been strongly supported by the state and the development of the national development and Reform Commission.In some enterprises,the project has been successful.However,as China's carbon trading market is still in its infancy,the future carbon trading price will bring uncertainty to the investment returns of the IGCC project.The traditional project investment decision method fails to take into account the uncertainty of the investment decision of the IGCC project,so it can not evaluate the real value of the IGCC project.Based on the net present value method and multi stage compound real option method,the uncertainty is introduced into the IGCC project investment evaluation,constructs a multi stage compound real optioninvestment decision model based on which is better for thermal power enterprises and project investors make the right decisions to support the scientific method.For this reason,this paper focuses on five aspects of the construction of IGCC project investment decision-making model based on multi-stage compound real option.Firstly,it analyzes the development status and option characteristics of IGCC projects in thermal power enterprises.Due to the existence of uncertainty,traditional investment decision-making methods have shortcomings in such projects.In this paper,we combine the net present value method and the multistage compound real option method to improve the flexibility of business management and the flexibility of project investment.Secondly,in the investment decision method of IGCC project,we use multi-stage compound real option pricing model and analyze IGCC project investment value constitution to design index system.In this model,the investment value of IGCC project is calculated by introducing the volatility of carbon trading price and the government subsidy coefficient by the option pricing formula.Thirdly,to carry out the deduction and validation of the model.Take the IGCC project operating in China's A thermal power plant as an example to verify the method and the feasibility and rationality of the model.Fourthly,analyze the sensitivity of the uncertain factors of IGCC project investment,and the sensitivity coefficient that affects the investment value of the project is obtained.Fifthly,According to the case analysis results,the countermeasures and suggestions for such project investment decision are given.