Driving Factors Of Industrial Carbon Emissions In China From The Perspective Of Production And Consumption

With the acceleration of Chinese industrialization,the problem of energy consumption and environmental pollution are becoming more and more obvious.According to the BP Statistical Review(2017),Chinese primary energy consumption accounted for 23%and carbon dioxide emissions accounted for 27%of the world in 2016.China is the largest country in terms of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions.China is adjusting energy consumption structure and industrial structure,but the task of carbon emission reduction at this stage is still arduous.It is generally believed that industrial production has greatly increased carbon emissions of our country,and that the industrial sector is the key sector for carbon emission reduction.However,there is a lack of quantitative research on the relationship between industrial development and carbon emissions in the literature.This study discusses that industrial development can predict carbon emissions by constructing the Hidden Markov Chain.The influence of industrial production and industrial consumption on the carbon emissions in the process of industrialization are discussed through the decomposition of LMDI.The research results provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of environmental protection policies and are of great significance in alleviating the growing needs of the people for a better life and the imbalance and insufficient development of the conflict.The main contents of this article are as follows.Chapter 1 is the background and significance of this topic.It points out that there is a contradiction between sustainable development and environment.A prerequisite for emission reduction policies is prediction of carbon emissions exactly.A key to the economic policies is the relationship between industrial development and carbon emissions.Chapter 2 summarizes the relevant literature from three aspects and believes that the current research is lack of quantitative research on the relationship between industrial development and carbon emissions.The factors of consumption are generally ignored when discussing carbon emission drivers.Chapter 3 gives a qualitative analysis of the relationship between industrial development and carbon emissions,and believes that they are related.Chapter 4 selects industrial added value,expounds that industrial development can accurately measure the changing trend of carbon emissions in China based on the Hidden Markov Chain.Furthermore,based on the LMDI decomposition,this paper discusses the production drivers(economic activities,energy intensity,energy structure)and consumption drivers(consumption intensity,trade factors)in the industrial development process based on the decomposition of LMDI.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows.First,industrial development and carbon emissions are closely related,and the Hidden Markov Chain based on the industrial added value can accurately measure carbon emissions.Second,there are significant differences in carbon emission levels across industries.They are accounting for three quarters of total emissions which included extractive industries,chemicals manufacturing and non-metal manufacturing.Third,for an industrial industry,the added value is not necessarily at the same level as carbon emissions.For example,the value added of the electronic equipment manufacturing industry is high but the emissions are less.Fourth,at different stages of the industrialization process,various drivers have different impacts on carbon emissions in the industrial sector.Based on the conclusions,this paper believes that the proportion of medium-and high-emission industries in the industrial sector should be controlled in the future,especially in the heavy industry sector and more attention should be paid to the quality of economic growth and the improvement of energy use efficiency,which is of great significance to energy conservation and emission reduction.There are two innovation points in this paper.The first is based on the more flexible Hidden Markov Chain and more targeted index of industrial added value,which has achieved a more accurate prediction of carbon emissions and clarified that the industrial index can measure carbon emissions.Second,when disaggregating the influencing factors of carbon emissions,it not only considers the impact of industrial production on carbon emissions in various industries,but also considers the impact of industrial consumption,which not only contributes to the improvement of the relevant theoretical framework,but also has important significance for the environmental policies.