Research On Difference Of Influencing Factors Of China's Regional Carbon Emissions Based On Projection Pursuit

Global climate change is the most serious challenge that human beings faces,attracting worldwide concern.China is in a crucial period of rapid development of urbanization and industrialization.Because of the increase of the contradiction between the population and the insufficient use of resources,there is still huge pressure on energy saving and emission reduction in China.Therefore,how to promote energy saving and reduce carbon emissions for China has become a hot issue.Therefore,the study of carbon emissions in various provinces in China and the prediction of the influencing factors are great significant for the reasonable control of carbon emissions and the low-carbon development in China.This paper was organized from the following four aspect: firstly,through the calculation formula of carbon emissions,the total amount of carbon emissions in China and all provinces for 2000-2016 years were obtained.The analysis showed that the growth of carbon emissions tended to be flat from 2012,and negative growth occurs in2016.The characteristics of China`s carbon emissions were as follows: per capita carbon emissions were high in the east and low in the central and western regions of China;the carbon emissions intensity was low in the east and high in the west of China;carbon emissions in China had regional differences,not only between the east and west.Secondly,Kaya identity was used to decompose the influencing factors of carbon emissions into per capita GDP,energy intensity industrial,energy structure and population size.The LMDI decomposition model was constructed to analyze the contribution rate of these five factors to the change of carbon emissions.It can be seen that the contribution rate of per capita GDP to the change of carbon emissions in2001-2016 was the largest,followed by energy intensity,industrial structure,population size and energy structure.Thirdly,through the projection pursuit model,30 provinces(except Tibet)in China were divided into three regions,the relative weights of influencing factors in each region were calculated,and the differences were analyzed.Finally,the Markov transfer matrix was used to predict the factors affecting carbon emissions in the future,and the future development trend of the regional factors was compared and analyzed.There are differences in the importance of carbon emissions in different regions.Therefore,in the future development process,regional carbon emissions can be controlled accordingly.According to the prediction results,thereasonable policy recommendations in line with China`s national conditions are put forward.This paper not only enriches the theory and method of low-carbon economy,but also provides theoretical support for the development of low-carbon economy of regions in China.