Research On Industrial Energy Consumption Carbon Emission In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Under The Background Of Coordinated Development

With the development of economy,the environmental problems are becoming more and more prominent,and the problem of carbon emissions have been paid more and more attention.In the study of carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,many scholars have done a lot of related research,but most of the researches were to take the whole Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as the research object to carry out the overall study.There're few studies on carbon emissions of industrial energy consumption and industrial branch in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Therefore,on the basis of the relevant carbon emissions research,starting from the strategic principle of coordinated development between Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,this paper attempted to study the regional carbon emissions from the perspective of the whole industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,as well as from the perspective of various industrial branch.Based on that,the study used the industrial energy consumption data of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from 2005 to 2016 to carry out analysis.It mainly calculated the carbon emissions of industrial energy consumption and various industrial branch,respectively,of the various provinces and cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Through models and methods such as STIRPAT model and geographical detector technique,the effect degree of different influencing factors on carbon emissions of industrial energy consumption in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were analyzed,and the most important influencing factors of carbon emissions of industrial energy consumption in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were obtained in order to provide directional guidance for energy-saving and emissionreduction in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.At the same time,based on the scenario analysis method,the carbon emissions of industrial energy consumption in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were forecasted for analyzing the changing trend,and the appropriate methods of energy-saving and emission-reduction were put forward.This study results shows that:(1)The carbon emissions of industrial energy consumption in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region increase year by year from 2005 to 2013,and are on the decline from 2013 to 2016.Coal energy is still the main energy source of industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,accounting for more than 80% of the total energy consumption.It shows that the energy structure has a great impact on industrial carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.(2)The manufacturing industry has the greatest impact on the carbon emissions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,followed by the production and supply industry of electricity,gas and water,among industrial branch the mining industry has a low contribution to carbon emissions.Through screening industrial branches which dominate the first six and the last six of industrial carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,it is concluded that carbon emissions have the characteristics of industry concentration.There is a close relationship between the industrial output value and carbon emissions of industrial energy consumption in the two provinces and one province-level municipality,all of which change in a phased manner.(3)The analysis of geographic detector technique shows that energy structure has the greatest impact on carbon emissions of industrial energy consumption for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Tianjin and Hebei,and the number of industrial employees has the greatest impact on carbon emissions of industrial energy consumption for Beijing.It is pointed out that optimizing energy structure,further reducing staff and increasing efficiency are important ways to reduce carbon emissions of industrial energy consumption.(4)By means of STIRPAT model and scenario analysis method,three scenarios of high-carbon,low-carbon and benchmark were set to forecast the carbon emissions of industrial energy consumption in Beijing-TianjinHebei.Under these three scenarios,all the carbon emissions of industrial energy consumption in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei are increasing.It proves that energy-saving and emission-reduction,clean production are still the targets of future industrial production for a long time to come.