Research On Wuhan Low Carbon Economy Based On LMDI Decomposition And System Dynamics

Wuhan is a large city in the central of China.It is not only the capital of Hubei province,but also an important industrial,scientific and educational base and comprehensive transportation hub in the country.In September 2015,at the first Sino-US climate leadership summit in the United States,Wuhan joined APPC and made a commitment to the world to achieve peak carbon emissions around 2022.Therefore,a proper understanding of the current situation of carbon emissions in Wuhan,identifying the main factors affecting carbon emissions,exploring the economic growth and optimal path of carbon emission reduction,achieving coordinated and sustainable development of the economy and the environment are important issues to be solved.This paper aims to study and analyze the development trend of Wuhan carbon emissions,the influencing factors and the path of carbon emission reduction from the perspective of system dynamics.First an equation based on economic scale,industrial structure,energy structure,energy intensity and population are constructed.Based on the data of Wuhan from 2010 to 2016,the historical driving factors and their contribution of carbon emissions in Wuhan city were analyzed by using the LMDI decomposition.Then by building Wuhan emissions system dynamics model,the trend of carbon emissions of Wuhan from 2017 to 2030 is simulated.The model first simulates the initial situation without policy intervention,and predicts the trend of parameters such as energy consumption and carbon emissions in 2017-2030.Then through the dynamic simulation of the single factor policy adjustment of the model in the previous study,it is found that the single factor adjustment has some limitations and cannot meet the development goals currently set by Wuhan.Therefore,the dynamic simulation of combined factors is used to find the best carbon emission peak path in Wuhan.The research results show that under the condition without policy regulation,the carbon emissions of Wuhan city will increase continuously,and the policy objectives of energy conservation and emission reduction will not be realized.In terms of influencing factors,economic scale,industrial structure,energy structure and energy intensity show different effect on the carbon emissions of Wuhan;There is a limit of the single factor adjustment to achieve the carbon emission reduction target,and the dynamic simulation results of the combined factors find that reducing the proportion of coal consumption while increasing the proportion of investment in the tertiary industry and technology investment can achieve the low carbon development requirements of Wuhan.The results of this paper are intended to provide a scientific basis for the development of low-carbon economy in Wuhan,and provide some reference for promoting low-carbon development in other cities.