Research On The Path Of Carbon Reduction Of Tianjin Based On System Dynamics

As the economic center of Bohai Sea rim region,Tianjin is currently in the middle stage of industrialization.Its economy increases steadily,but the economic development pattern of high energy consumption and high pollution has caused serious damage to the ecological environment and greatly restricted the sustainable development of Tianjin.Therefore,correctly understanding the current situation of carbon emission in Tianjin City,confirming the main factors that affect Carbon emission,searching for the optimal path which can promote economic growth and reduce carbon emissions and realizing the balanced and sustainable development between economy and environment are the important issues that need to be settled.The purpose of this dissertation is to research the development trend,influencing factors and the path of the carbon reduction of Tianjin emissions at the view of system science,combining the current development situation of Tianjin.This paper starts with the energy of industry and resident consumption that constructs an identical equation,which is composed of the economic scale,industry structure,energy structure,energy intensity,population size,population structure and life energy consumption model.Based on the data of energy consumption during 2000-2013,various factors are analyzed and their contribution is measured by LMDI(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index).Then by building Tianjin emissions system dynamics model,the change trend of carbon emissions of Tianjin from 2014 to 2030 is simulated and according to the LMDI decomposition results in the contribution of each factor to the carbon emissions,a single factor system dynamic is simulated to analyze that how to adjust the single factor to achieve the goal of carbon emission reduction in Tianjin by 2030;Finally,based on the real limitations of changing single factor,according to the target of low carbon economy to adjust the parameter value,this paper gives the optimal path to reduce emissions in Tianjin by dynamic simulation of combined factors.The research results show that under the condition of not to take policy,Tianjin emissions present development momentum.It will not be able to achieve energy-saving and emission reduction policies of Tianjin;in terms of influencing factors,economic scale,industrial structure,energy structure,energy intensity,energy consumption model affect carbon emissions in different degree,it is limited to change a single factor to achieve carbon reduction targets;The combined factors of dynamic simulation results show that compared with the structure adjustment,Low carbon technology progress and low carbon consciousness enhancement have more contribution to reduce carbon emission,but in terms of achieving the policy goal of carbon reduction,according to itself circumstance to control factors comprehensively is the optimal path in reducing carbon emission of Tianjin.