Adjustments And Effects Of China’s Energy Structure Under Carbon Emission Constraints

Since 2014,China’s economy has entered a new norm,China’s industrialization and urbanization need to consume a lot of primary energy to maintain high growth,how to maintain rapid economic growth under the premise of achieving 2020 emission reduction targets,promote economic and environmental health Development,become in front of the thorny problem.The Computable General Equilibrium Model(CGE)method can describe,simulate and predict the impact of policy and economic activity improvement and change,and its application in environmental protection can provide the theoretical basis to energy structure optimization and prediction.In recent years,there have been many researches on the optimization of energy structure,but the analysis process is simple and the model is still in static CGE model.In the "low oil prices" and "new normal" economic context how to coordinate the contradictions among the solution of economic development,energy structure,development of low-carbon economy and control of greenhouse gas emissions will be a major challenge.In this paper,the CGE model is applied to the adjustment of energy structure under carbon emission constraints in China.There are two innovative points: First,the dynamic index is introduced into the model,which makes the reference value of policy simulation higher;Second,In the "low oil prices" and "new normal" economic context make policy simulation,the results are more reference.The main contents are as follows:Firstly,a multi-objective programming model(including carbon emission constraints and primary energy use constraints)is developed to compute the optimal energy structure under different constraints and measure the energy cost of the optimal energy structure under different planning objectives.Secondly,the dynamic equilibrium model of energy environment is built,and dynamic recursive module is added to the existing research of energy environment CGE model,which makes up the deficiency of static research.This paper constructs SAM according to the latest input-output table in 2012,and further divides the energy and environment department.At last,the dynamic CGE model has been constructed to simulate the impact of energy cost change on China’s macroeconomy and environment by the data base of 2012,and optimize the adjustment of the relevant policy recommendations on the basis of summarizing the main contents of this paper.