Analysis Of The Impact Of Population Structure On Carbon Emissions In The Process Of Urbanization

Actively addressing climate change and reducing carbon emissions are global issues.As a country with more carbon emissions,China has made a number of emission reduction commitments and adopted a series of measures to achieve low-carbon development.To a certain extent,urbanization has created a good atmosphere for the optimization and upgrading of China’s industrial structure and the perfection of the economic system,but it has also brought about different effects on China’s energy utilization,environmental governance and residents’ lives.In recent years,the results showed that the proportion of energy consumption to global carbon emissions increased year by year,and its growth rate even exceeded the industrial sector,which also indirectly pointed out that the role of population in carbon emissions is becoming more and more obvious.The implementation of the "family planning" policy alleviates all kinds of social contradictions caused by the population to a certain extent,but it has not fundamentally changed the unbalanced and unreasonable status quo of the population structure.At the same time,these policies,environmental changes have a different degree of impact on carbon emissions,so this paper carries out a specific study to find out the relationship between the two,and put forward some policy recommendations.Above all,considering the background of urbanization,this paper analyzes the literatures on the relationship between population structure(or population factors)and carbon emissions at home and abroad,and then finds some research problems and deficiencies still existing in the current studies.Under the guidance of urbanization theory and population structure theory,the index construction of population structure has been gradually clarified,which lays a foundation for further exploring the intrinsic relationship between population structure and carbon emissions.According to the references of many literatures,this paper builds a functional bridge between population structure and carbon emissions through an econometric model.Secondly,taking Jiangsu Province as an empirical research object,therelationship between population structure and carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province is analyzed by using VAR model.The results show that age structure,gender structure,family structure,education structure and urban-rural structure have different effects on carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province,and present a long-term equilibrium.In the age structure,the carbon emission changes "U-shaped" with the deepening of the aging degree,and the relationship between the carbon emission and the number of urban population is "inverted U-shaped" in the urban-rural structure.In the educational structure,the higher educated population has a significant effect on the carbon emission in the future,and in the short term,the household structure(household size)has a strong inhibitory effect on the carbon emission,but the long-term effect of this inhibition is gradually weakened.The relationship between gender structure and carbon emissions is relatively weak,but not significant.Then,the dynamic panel model is used to study the relationship between population structure and carbon emissions in different regions of Jiangsu Province.The effect of urbanization rate on carbon emissions in southern Jiangsu decreased significantly with the passage of time,and the influence coefficient also weakened gradually.The effect of urbanization rate on carbon emissions in North and Central Jiangsu was relatively obvious.The family structure has no significant effect on the carbon emissions in the north of Jiangsu Province in the future,but in the southern and central Jiangsu regions,it is significant and the influence coefficient is large.The influence of age structure and education structure on each region is significant,and it is in a long-term equilibrium state.The effect of gender structure on carbon emissions is not very obvious in southern Jiangsu,but there is a significant positive effect on carbon emissions in northern and central Jiangsu.Finally,based on the empirical analysis of Jiangsu Province and its regional development,combined with the actual situation of Jiangsu Province and the current national population fertility policy,it will make recommendations on the future economic development strategies of Jiangsu Province and various regions.