| Urban agglomerations have become the main form of Chinese government’s promotion of new urbanization in China,and their sustainable development is,to a large extent,influencing China’s future eco-environment.Understanding the coercive relationships between urbanization and eco-environment in an urban agglomeration area is the key for the government to compile the regional development planning,which will further guide the sustainable development of the region.Some scholars have focused on the impact of urbanization on the eco-environment,however,from the perspective of urban agglomeration,literature on the interaction and dynamic characteristics of the two are relatively limited.Based on the theory of econometrics and system dynamics,this article establishes a comprehensive framework for the exploration of the complex interactions within the coupled urbanization-eco-environment system.The framework includes:(1)Identification of the interactive coercion mechanism between urbanization and eco-environment based on global regression and local regression models.After evaluating urbanization level and ecoenvironment quality for each city in an urban agglomeration based on a comprehensive index system,this framework uses grey correlation analysis and stepwise regression to determine the key interaction factors within the coupled system.Then,from the two perspectives of “one to one” and “many to one”,this framework uses the global and local regression approach to quantify the interactive coercion of urbanization and eco-environment and its spatial heterogeneity.(2)Scenario simulation of the coupled urbanization and eco-environment system based on system dynamics model.Based on the theory of sustainable development,this framework establishes a “multi-to-many” interaction mechanism between urbanization and the eco-environment from five aspects,i.e.,population,economy,society,resources,and the environment.The system dynamics model is used to reveal the dynamic feedback features of the interactive coercion,scenario simulation comparison and policy analysis.This article used the above framework in the study of the interactive coercion identification and scenario simulation between urbanization and eco-environment in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in urban agglomerations from 2000 to 2030.Regional results are as follows:(1)The econometric model reveals the bidirectional influence and its spatio-temporal differences within the urbanization-eco-environment system from 2000 to 2015.Precisely,there existed significant bidirectional interactions in the coupled system from 2005 to 2015,and coercing threat that was stronger than constraining pressure in this region.Moreover,the coercion urbanization posed on eco-environment began to vary in space significantly from 2010,whereas the constraint of eco-environment on urbanization was spatially stationary.(2)Using the historical data from 2000-2015 in the study area,we calculated the quantitative equations among the variables in the system dynamics model.The VENSIM software was then used to test the model and it was found that the fitting effect was good.Based on the current developing trend,the value of each indicator in the coupled system in the study region during 2016-2030 was predicted,and the prediction results of the main variables were consequently compared with the development planning values of the study area.By changing the key parameters,six kinds of planning schemes were set up.We finally adopted coupling coordination model to carry out comparison of the scenario simulation results.We found the scenario V(rapid economic development with the constraint of low discharged pollutant per Industrial output)was the most suitable planning scheme for the mid-and short-term development of the study area,while the scenario VI(rapid social development with the constraint of low discharged pollutant per Industrial output)was more beneficial for the region’s long-term development.Finally,some sustainable development suggestions were proposed. |
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