Research On Carbon Emission Prediction And Factor Decomposition Of Transportation Industry In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

With the rapid development of regional economy,the total amount of carbon emissions has increased and led to greenhouse effect and frequent extreme weather.Transportation industry is one of the driving forces to promote economic development,but also an important reason for the increase of carbon emissions.Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is located in the Circum-Bohai Sea Centre.It’s a new and important growth pole of China’s economy,and also a green,low-carbon,ecologically livable strategic economic zone that the country is striving to build.However,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has not thoroughly solved the serious air pollution problem,which has had a tremendous impact on the lives of residents and economic development.In 2014,the state put forward a major national strategy of coordinated development between Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.Traffic is a pioneer area of coordinated development,but transportation achieves high-speed development at the cost of the large amount of energy consumption and high carbon emissions,people gradually realize the importance of low-carbon transport development.Based on the demand of practical problems and the deficiency of theoretical research,this thesis aims to optimize the development of low-carbon transportation among regions,and takes the traffic carbon emissions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei as the research object.This thesis follows the research idea of "Carbon Emission Measurement-Driving Factor Decomposition-Scenario Analysis and Prediction-Proposing Countermeasures and Suggestions",and applies the method of combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis.On the basis of previous studies,this thesis fully considers the correlation of inter-regional traffic carbon emissions,decomposes the effect change value of driving factors,and finally puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions for future low-carbon traffic development based on scenario analysis results.The main research contents of this thesis are summarized as follows:(1)Based on the current development situation and carbon emission characteristics of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei transportation industry,this thesis comprehensively applies the theory and method of carbon emission to calculate the traffic carbon emissions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from 2006 to 2016.During the study period,Beijing’s traffic carbon emissions have always shown an increasing trend.In recent years,Tianjin and Hebei have a floating downward trend in traffic carbon emissions.Therefore,Beijing has greater pressure on traffic emission reduction and emission reduction difficulties.(2)In this thesis,LMDI is used to decompose and research the driving factors of traffic carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.The driving effect of energy structure factors is analyzed by closely linking the characteristics of regional traffic structure in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,and the correlation of regional traffic carbon emissions is fully considered.The decomposition results show that: Energy structure factor has the strongest inhibitory effect ontraffic carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region;energy intensity factor also has inhibitory effect on traffic carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and its inhibitory effect is inversely related to the level of urban economic development;The per capita output value of the transportation industry is the main driving factor to promote traffic carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and it is difficult to mitigate in a short time;population size factor also plays a positive role in carbon emissions of Beijing and Tianjin,but the overall effect is not significant,and population size factor has a restraining effect on traffic carbon emissions in Hebei Province.(3)Based on the decomposition of driving factors,this thesis uses scenario analysis to set baseline scenarios and low-carbon scenarios,and introduces STIRPAT model to carry out scenario prediction research on Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei’s traffic carbon emissions in 2026,2036 and 2046.Through scenario analysis,it is found that the total traffic carbon emissions of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei will continue to grow in the future under the baseline scenario,and there is still plenty of room for growth.In the low-carbon scenario,although the initial emission reduction effect is not particularly obvious,the regional traffic emission reduction effect will gradually expand as Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei continue to explore the low-carbon development model in the process of coordinated development.The effect of regional traffic emission reduction will gradually expand.The emission reduction effect of Beijing under the low-carbon scenario will be accelerated with the coordinated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei;in Tianjin,the traffic carbon emission has the smallest differences between the two scenarios,and the overall change of that is still relatively gentle;the effect of carbon emission reduction in Hebei Province after 2036 is the most significant among the three areas.Finally,based on the results of driving factor decomposition and scenario analysis,this thesis puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions for the development of low-carbon transportation in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.