Research On Factor Decomposition And Scenario Prediction Of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Regional Energy Consumption Carbon Emission

With the increasing demand of energy, the environmental problems such as carbon emissions are becoming more and more prominent, being the important factors to restrict the economic development. In particular, as a national strategic highland, the haze problems and environment issues of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region have caused much attention.Moreover, energy consumption carbon emission is increasing, severely restricting the further cooperative development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Under such severe situation,whether the national carbon reduction target can be realized or not, and the future direction of situation of energy consumption carbon emissions has become the focus of attention.Therefore, taking region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei as the research object, the energy consumption carbon emission is measured, decomposed and predicted, which has important theoretical and practical significance for the carbon emission reduction work and coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei.Firstly, on the basis of the studying and mastering the research status at home and abroad,the carbon emission estimation, decomposition and prediction models are sorted out and analyzed, and then the appropriate research models are determined. Secondly, based on 25 kinds of energy consumption data of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in 2000-2013, sub-regional and overall carbon emissions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is calculated and analyzed by using the carbon emission coefficient method based on weight or volume. Thirdly, on this basis, the main factors influencing the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei energy consumption carbon emission are determined preliminary and analyzed qualitatively. At the same time, a combined decomposition model is built on the basis of LMDI method and Shapley value method, which is used to decompose energy consumption carbon emission of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei into population, per capita GDP, industrial structure, energy consumption intensity, energy consumption structure and carbon emission coefficient to carry out quantitative analysis.Through calculation, we can get the contribution degree of each factor in addition to carbon emission coefficient followed by 16.96%,99.62%,9.06%,-42.79% and 17.15%, and then the influence effect of each factor is analyzed. Fourthly, the high carbon, low carbon and collaborative low carbon developing scenario of influencing factors of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei energy consumption carbon emission are set, and the improved STIRPAT forecast model is established to predict Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei energy consumption carbon emission underdifferent developing scenarios in year of 2014-2050. The prediction results show that in different scenarios, the peak time of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei energy consumption carbon emission emerges in the year of 2040, 2030 and 2027, and the peak carbon emission respectively is 43195.11 million tons, 28725.36 million tons and 21659.98 million tons.Meantime, this paper analyzes the carbon emission intensity and per capita carbon emission of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in years of 2014-2050. Finally, taking the factor decomposition and carbon emission forecast results into account, the targeted carbon emission reduction measures are put forward, hoping to provide policy basis for the energy saving and emission reduction work in region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.