Influence Factors Analysis And Prediction Study Of Reginal Transportation Carbon Emissions Based On Low-carbon Development

As the development of the industrialized society and expansion of emerging economies,more and more energy is required to sustain development in China.Transportation industry has been bringing the increasing energy consumption and carbon emissions as a main energy-consuming industry.Under the uneven levels of regional transportation industry in China,there are detailed regional differences in transportation carbon emissions at various stages.Therefore,analyzing the key indexes and influence factors of reginal transportation carbon emissions,and choosing the optimal model to forecast the future development trend of carbon emissions,are the keys to develop an effective low-carbon transportation development strategy,and achieve the goal of energy-saving and emission reduction targets of transportation industry in China.Firstly,by comparing and analyzing various calculation methods of transportation carbon emissions,the total carbon emissions of regional transportation industry were calculated by means of “top-down”.According to the research status of key indexes based on transportation carbon emissions at home and abroad,combined with China’s regional transportation development level and transportation carbon emissions change law with time,the total transportation carbon emissions,per capita carbon emissions,carbon efficiency,carbon intensity and energy structure were selected as the five key indexes to analyze the changes of regional transportation carbon emissions.For the analysis of influence factors,the extended STIRPAT model was built with the seven influence factors of reginal transportation carbon emissions including the passenger turnover,freight turnover,per capita GDP,vehicle population,urbanization rate,energy efficiency,and energy structure.To obtain the driving effects of different influence factors on the carbon emissions,the least square method and ridge regression method were used for quantitative analysis.In the link of prediction study,a model of carbon emissions prediction based on support vector regression was established according to the identified seven factors of the extended STIRPAT model.The optimal value of model parameter C and γ were gotten through the grid search method.At the same time,the ability of learning and promotion was proved by the results of the fitting analysis of the data of the training sample set and the test sample set,which meant that the model was suitable for the prediction research of regional transportation carbon emissions in China.Finally,synthesizing the develop experiences on low carbon transportation at home and abroad,considering the analysis of the key indexes,the influence factors and the prediction results,a development strategy of low-carbon transportation was built in based on the theory of system and ASIF methodology.The question was solved by the ways of strengthening traffic demand management,optimizing transportation structure,improving energy utilization efficiency,developing clean transportation energy,focusing on the low-carbon innovation and implementing the regional comprehensive program.