Research On Influencing Factors And Scenario Prediction Of Carbon Emissions From Transportation In The Yangtze River Basin

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics,the Yangtze River Basin has accounted for more than 40% of the country’s GDP,and has shown a slow and stable growth trend year by year since 2010.With economic development,the transportation industry has gradually become the second largest carbon emission sector in the world,with its carbon emissions gradually rising in the overall carbon emissions.Studying the influencing factors of carbon emiss ions from transportation in the Yangtze River basin and making scenario predictions is of great significance for promoting the low-carbon development of transportation in the Yangtze River basin.The thesis defines the concepts of carbon emissions,carbon emission intensity,the Yangtze River basin,and transportation turnover,expounds and clarifies the four theoretical foundations of environmental economics,factor decomposition,the expanded STIRPAT model,and scenario analysis.It summarizes,analyzes,and summarizes previous relevant research results,and finds that the factors affecting transportation carbon emissions vary depending on regional geographical position,Based on the development of transportation in the Yangtze River Basin,this thesis quantitatively analyzes its carbon emissions,laying a foundation for future research.In order to explore the influencing factors of transportation carbon emissions in the Yangtze River basin,the thesis constructs a factor decomposition model of transportation carbon emissions in the Yangtze River basin using the LMDI method based on literature analysis and relevant methods.The influencing factors are divided into five categories: per capita GDP,transportation intensity,population size,unit turnover energy consumption,and unit energy consumption emissions.At the same time,the collected data will be sorted out and basic calculations will be performed according to the decomposition model conclusions,and then the sorted carbon emission impact factor data related to the LMDI model will be calculated using Matlab software.From the obtained calculation results,the contribution of the impact factors to carbon emissions can be obtained,providing ideas for future research.In order to further explore the correlation between the factors affecting carbon emissions from transportation in the Yangtze River Basin,the extensible STIRPAT model is applied to further subdivide the factors derived from the decomposition of the factors,expanding the original five factors into nine influencing factors,namely,population size,aging,urbanization rate,per capita GDP,industrial structure,industrialization,unit turnover energy consumption,energy structure,and carbon emission intensity,With the help of Stata15.0 measurement software,regression analysis is conducted on the relationship between nine influencing factors and carbon emissions from transportation in the Yangtze River basin,in order to obtain a long-term balanced linear relationship between the influencing factors and carbon emissions from transportation in the Yangtze River basin,providing data support for the scenario simulation below.According to 27 different scenario scenarios are set based on the characteristics represented by each influencing factor(population size,economic development,and technological level)in three modes: high,medium,and low.Based on the factor decomposition results of the LMDI model and the linear relationship between the influencing factors and carbon emissions derived from the STIRPAT model,scenario parameters are set for various changes in the nine influencing factors from 2020 to 2030,Use scenario simulation methods to predict carbon emissions for the set scenarios,and analyze the results of different scenarios,providing useful thinking and reference for the formulation of future low-carbon emission reduction policies for transportation in the Yangtze River basin.