The Influence Of "Gas-for-coal" Substitution On PM_2.5Pollution In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up,China's economy is expanding rapidlywith deepening industrialization and urbanization.But behind this sustained high rate of economic growth,there is a low-cost model of economic development..In March 2017,various government departmentsenacted jointly the regulation of 'Air pollution prevention and control plan of Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei and surrounding areas in 2017' to promote the heating renovation plan of the beijing-tianjin-hebei region and cities along its air pollution transmission channels.The policy requires clean heating in 10 prefecture-level cities in the beijing-tianjin-hebei region.In order to know whether the policy has achieved emission reduction effected,this paper adopts measurement method to quantitatively analyze the implementation effect of "coal to gas" policy,which can also provide an in-depth research direction for future practical problems in energy consumption structure adjust:ment.This article choose between January 2003 and December 2017,Beijing tianjin shijiazhuang three cities PM2.5 concentration as the research sample,monthly average time series based on ARMA model,PM2.5 prediction model is established based on historical data to predict if there is no "coal to gas" policy(namely "policy deficiency")potential PM2.5 concentrations(and policy evaluation of counterfactual state),compared with the actual concentrations of PM2.5,to analyze the policy of"coal to gas" impact on PM2.5 concentrations.Regression equation was used to analyze the relationship between PM2.5 concentration and the influencing factors other than the "coal to gas,policy.Then using the the panel data of 13 prefecture-level citiesin the beijing-tianjin-hebei region from 2013 to 2017.Considering the "coal to gas,policy implemented in 2016 as a policy experiment,with a coal ban set the five cities as experimental group,the other eight cities as the control group,and using the double difference tend to score matching method(PSM-DID)evaluate the policy of "coal to gas" effect.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:?Different policies with different energy consumption structure have different effects."Coal-to-gas" policy is more effective for cities whose energy consumption structure is dominated by high pollution energy consumption.Controlling the use of coal energy can promote cities to optimize the energy consumption structure and find alternative cleaner energy.?The "coal to gas" policy mainly plays a role in reducing the consumption of coal resources,but whether to replace coal with gas or coal with electricity requires comprehensive consideration of social,economic,environmental and other factors of each city,and the direction of adjusting energy consumption should be determined according to local conditions.?The influence of meteorological factors on PM2.5 may interfere with the evaluation of environmental governance effect.The establishment of an environmental governance effect evaluation system incorporating meteorological factors is conducive to a more equitable evaluation of the effectiveness of air pollution control in various regions and the adjustment of the direction of air pollution control policies.?The main pollution sources in beijing-tianjin-hebei region vary greatly.The pollution sources in more developed cities come from automobile exhaust emissions,while the less developed areas are greatly affected by direct industrial emissions.Among them,the pollution of the iron and steel industry contributes more to PM2.5 pollution,which needs to be paid attention to.?The power generation industry in beijing-tianjin-hebei region has realized the clean optimization of energy consumption structure,and thermal power generation is no longer the main power generation mode in beijing-tianjin-hebei region.The innovation of this paper is reflected in the following aspects:first,from the perspective of research framework,the implementation effect of the policy is explored from the perspectives of time series data and panel data,which can not only explain the implementation effect of the policy,but also highlight the different characteristics of the change trend of PM2.5 concentration in different cities under the influence of the policy.Second,the domestic evaluation of the effect of "coal to gas" policy is mostly theoretical analysis and qualitative analysis.In this paper,coal resource consumption and natural gas consumption are taken as two measurement indexes,and the relationship between them and PM2.5 concentration is more objective and accurate from a statistical perspective.The deficiency of this article are as follows:first,the municipal statistical yearbook published basic monthly data,find the monthly data are extremely hard,can only from the dimension of annual data,but due to the time of implementation of the policy of "coal to gas" and most close,process is more focused,only one year after the policy implementation data,less data available.Second,the research on PM2.5 concentration in this paper focuses on the implementation effect of policies.Although meteorological factors are taken as variables to consider the impact on PM2.5 concentration,interregional transmission is not taken into systematic consideration,and changes in PM2.5 concentration caused by spatial spillover effects may be ignored.