Identifying The Driving Forces Of CO₂ Emissions In Transport Sector Of China’s Municipalities From Temporal And Spatial Differences Perspectives

In recent years,our country economy level with each passing day,will greatly enhance our capacity for technological innovation,the corresponding led to the rapid improvement of people’s living standard,the motorization level also accordingly to get development,combined with domestic and international economic activity is increasingly frequent,the continuously rise of tourism,these factors have promoted the country’s increasing transportation demand and consumption of energy is necessary to assure the transportation smoothly,and also a source of carbon dioxide and other harmful gas emissions,and thus increasing emissions of carbon dioxide.At present,the power industry and the steel industry are the two sectors that emit the most greenhouse gases in China.In addition to the transportation sector,it has gradually become the research focus of energy conservation and emission reduction.This paper estimated the changes of carbon emissions in transport sector among four municipalities of China from 2000-2015,based on eight kinds of energy consumption data in four subsectors.And on the basis of expanded Kaya identical equation,we built the LMDI decomposition model of carbon emissions driving forces and decomposed the driving factors into 6 kinds（energy structure,transportation structure,energy intensity,transportation intensity,income and population scale effects）from temporal perspective;Then,analyzed the key factors causing the differences in CO₂ emissions among four municipalities based on a bilateral–regional spatial decomposition model（B-R）.Furthermore,the contribution value and change trend of each driving factor to spatial-temporal differences of CO₂ emission among municipalities were calculated.Through analysis and research,the following conclusions are as following:first,the carbon emission of four municipalities is gradually rising,among which Shanghai and Beijing are the cities with the highest emissions,accounting for 32.26%and 30.02%.In addition,the trend of carbon emissions from roads,waterways,aviation and railways is also increasing,with roads being the main source of carbon emissions,accounting for as much as 49.12%.Second,temporal decomposition results show that the effect of energy intensity and transportation intensity are the dominant factors for restraining the increase in CO₂emissions of transport sector,while income effect is the mainly contributor to the increase of CO₂ emissions in transport sector of four municipalities.Third,spatial decomposition results further show what drives different emission level（e.g.,income effect,energy structure and transportation structure）in four municipalities.Overall,four municipalities have greater potential in the reduction of CO₂ emissions.Furthermore,we believe our research can be used to guide the implementation policies of emission reduction in transport sector,and such effort can also enrich diverse study conducted on China’s low carbon transportation systems.