Research On Carbon Lock-in Ang Its Driving Factors In China’s High-carbon Manufacturing Industry

China is undergoing rapid industrialization and the rigid demand of economic growth for energy consumption maintains a high growth trend.Carbon emissions in energy consumption may bring great pressure on the sustainable development of economy,society and environment.The manufacturing industry is the main driving force of industrial economic growth in China.It produces strong negative feedback to the environment while bringing high economic benefits.Since 2000,the proportion of manufacturing industry carbon emissions has exceeded 66.7% of the total industrial carbon emissions.Therefore,how to achieve the carbon emissions reduction of the manufacturing industry has become an urgent problem.However,the carbon emissions of China’s manufacturing industry have a significant differences,high carbon-manufacturing industry has significant industry "carbon lock-in" and high-carbon regional lock-in.From 2000 to 2016,the carbon emissions of ferrous metal processing industry,non-metallic mineral manufacturing industry,petroleum smelting industry,chemical raw material product industry and non-ferrous metal metallurgic processing industry increased from 81.59% to 89.65% of the total manufacturing industry,and the cumulative proportion of carbon emissions of high-carbon provinces(Hebei,Shandong,Jiangsu,Shanxi,Henan and Liaoning)in 30 provinces increased from 37.5% to 45%.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to clarify the causes of carbon lock-in in these high-carbon manufacturing industries,and analyze the driving factors of regional lock-in of high-carbon emissions.This paper starts from the question of "whether there is carbon lock-in in China’s manufacturing industry and how the driving factors affect carbon lock-in",Firstly,This paper is based on the IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)carbon emissions coefficient method and energy consumption data from 2000 to 2016 to count the manufacturing industry carbon emissions of 30 provinces in China(except Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan and Tibet),and on this basis,identify the manufacturing industry high carbon lock-in industry.Secondly,by analyzing the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of carbon emissions in high-carbon manufacturing industry,and analyzes whether there is high-carbon regional lock-in in manufacturing industry carbon emissions.Thirdly,based on path dependence and "carbon lock-in" theory,regional factor endowment difference theory and "pollution heaven hypothesis",this paper constructs the "carbon lock-in" and its driving factors analysis framework of China’s high-carbon manufacturing industry.Finally,this paper using panel data regression model and spatial-temporal geographical weighted regression model(GTWR)to quantitatively analyze the driving factors of high-carbon manufacturing industry industry “carbon lock-in” and high-carbon regional lock-in,and point out the key factors of driving carbon lock-in.Finally,based on the empirical research results,this paper proposes reasonable carbon emissions reduction measures for high-carbon industries and high-carbon regions to achieve the carbon unlocking of high-carbon manufacturing industry.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)There are significant industry “carbon lock-in” and high-carbon regional lock-in in carbon emissions of China’s high-carbon manufacturing industry,and the lock-in strength continues to increase.Among them,the high-carbon manufacturing industry is mainly focused on ferrous metal processing industry,non-metallic mineral products industry,petroleum refining industry,chemical raw materials industry and non-ferrous metal smelting industry.High-carbon manufacturing carbon emissions high-carbon areas are mainly located in Bohai Bay(Liaoning,Hebei,Shandong)and central(Shanxi,Henan)and other provinces.(2)China’s high-carbon manufacturing industry carbon emissions have a strong global and local spatial autocorrelation.Among them,the global Morans’ I index of carbon emissions is high and shows a slight fluctuation.The local carbon emissions "H-H"(high-high)concentration provinces increased from 4 to 6,and the concentration areas extended from North China plain to Bohai Bay.The carbon emissions of high-carbon manufacturing industry is increasing in proximity,and the spatial spillover effect of carbon emissions between provinces is deepening.(3)There are significant differences in the direction and intensity of the role of lock-in drivers in China’s high-carbon manufacturing industry.Carbon based technology dependence with fossil energy consumption as the main body is the key factor that leads to the lock-in of high-carbon manufacturing industry.The industrial structure of heavy carbonization,fixed investment and the enhancement of foreign investment are the stable factors that lead to the lock-in of high-carbon manufacturing industry,and the lock-in intensity is continuously enhanced.The effect of economic scale,resource endowment and government intervention on the lock-in of high-carbon manufacturing industry is on the decline.Technological progress is conducive to the "carbon unlocking" of high-carbon manufacturing industry,and the strength of the role continues to increase.(4)The same factor that drives the carbon emissions lock-in of high-carbon manufacturing industry has significant differences in the direction and intensity of carbon emissions of different high-carbon provinces.The increase of fixed investment is the key factor of "carbon lock-in" in high-carbon provinces.The industrial structure of heavy carbonization and the expansion of economic scale further aggravate the "carbon lock-in" of high carbon provinces.The effect of resource endowments on "carbon lock-in" in Hebei,Liaoning,Shandong and Shanxi has declined,but it is the stable factor that leads to high-carbon lock-in in Henan Province.In addition to Liaoning Province,the increase of foreign investment intensifies the "carbon lock-in" of other high carbon provinces.Technological progress is conducive to "carbon unlocking" in high-carbon provinces.(5)Combined with the empirical results,it is helpful to put forward "carbon unlocking" measures for high-carbon manufacturing industry.Innovation of carbon based technology and adjustment of energy consumption structure will help to fundamentally realize "carbon unlocking" of high carbon manufacturing industry.It is an effective way to realize "carbon unlocking" in high-carbon manufacturing industry to improve investment mode and scientific research.Improving the ability of environmental regulation and implementing a reasonable carbon tax policy can provide institutional support for the "carbon unlocking" of high carbon manufacturing industry.In addition,we should pay attention to regional differences and formulate carbon emissions reduction measures according to local conditions,which can point out the direction for local high-carbon manufacturing industry to achieve "carbon unlocking".