Research On The Driving Mechanism Of Transformation And Upgrading Of Guizhou's Manufacturing Industry Under The Dual Carbon Goal

The dual carbon goal poses new requirements for the development of the manufacturing industry.At the same time,Guizhou Province is an important coal energy base in China,with a relatively weak industrial foundation and a significant lack of manufacturing strength,which to some extent restricts economic growth in Guizhou Province.Transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry has become a necessary prerequisite for economic development in Guizhou Province.This paper studies the current situation of manufacturing development in Guizhou Province.Based on the time series data of Guizhou Province from 2001 to 2020,the entropy weight method is used to evaluate the level of manufacturing transformation and upgrading in Guizhou Province,and then the DEMATEL method is used to identify the impact of various indicators on the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry in Guizhou Province under the dual-carbon target,and empirical analysis is carried out on the influential factors,and the impact of various factors in different periods on the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry is analyzed,Get the driving mechanism for the transformation and upgrading of Guizhou’s manufacturing industry,and finally put forward relevant policy recommendations.The results show that:(1)According to the current situation of manufacturing development in Guizhou Province,the manufacturing industry in Guizhou Province has developed rapidly,but it has problems such as low structural level,insufficient innovation and R&D capabilities,weak competitiveness and poor foundation for manufacturing development,which need transformation and upgrading.(2)According to the score results of the evaluation of the transformation and upgrading level of Guizhou’s manufacturing industry by the entropy weight method,the transformation and upgrading level of Guizhou’s manufacturing industry has significantly improved from2001 to 2020,and the scores of the four dimensions show different rising trends,with significant differences.(3)The DEMATEL method is used to explore the role of 17 indicators in the transformation and upgrading of Guizhou’s manufacturing industry,and finally 11 factors with the greatest impact are selected for driving mechanism analysis.(4)This paper studies the effect of 11 factors on the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry in Guizhou Province through vector autoregressive model.In order to avoid collinearity in this process,after removing 6influencing factors,it is found that labor productivity has a promoting effect on the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry in Guizhou Province,with the largest contribution rate;The effect of wastewater discharge per unit output value on the transformation and upgrading of Guizhou’s manufacturing industry is inverted U shape;The improvement of the total amount of telecommunication services has a Ushaped effect on the transformation and upgrading of Guizhou’s manufacturing industry,and its contribution rate is relatively small compared with other factors;The proportion of R&D employees and the output value of new products promote the transformation and upgrading of Guizhou’s manufacturing industry.Based on the previous research,in order to improve the transformation and upgrading level of Guizhou’s manufacturing industry,this article proposes relevant policy recommendations from the following aspects: at the government level,it is necessary to strengthen financial policy support,improve industrial policies,improve policy accuracy,and improve talent cultivation mechanisms;At the enterprise level,it is necessary to adhere to green development,increase investment in research and development,improve innovation capabilities,and effectively utilize the Internet.