Research On The Subject-Process-Environment Three-Dimensional Risk Management Of Forestry Carbon Sequestration PPP Project

In recent years,the Public Private Partnership(PPP)model has been widely used in domestic public projects,which not only overcomes the problems of insufficient government efficiency and corruption,but also widens the financing channels for public projects.In order to improve the efficiency of forestry ecological construction and broaden the financing channels for forestry ecological construction,forestry PPP project came into being and achieved rapid development.It now covers many project types such as ecological forest project and reserve forest project.Among them,the forestry carbon sequestration PPP project can realize the transformation of forest ecological benefits into the economic benefits expected by social capital,thus it has broad development prospects.Although PPP mode can overcome the short board when the government and the private sector provide public services separately,the long-term cooperation of multiple stakeholders will inevitably complicate the risks faced by the project.Scholars at home and abroad have made extensive researches on the risks of PPP projects,and come to different conclusions on the risks of different PPP projects.At present,there is a relative lack of research on the risks of forestry carbon sequestration PPP projects,so this paper aims at the characteristics of forestry carbon sequestration PPP projects,identifies and analyzes the risks of the projects,and explores ways to deal with the risks.First of all,by constructing Hall’s three-dimensional structure model of forestry carbon sequestration PPP project,the whole project is deconstructed into the main dimension,environmental dimension and process dimension,and an analysis framework is constructed for risk management research.Through case analysis,comparing the forestry carbon sequestration PPP project with the general PPP project,the particularity of forestry carbon sequestration PPP project is obtained,which provides the basis for risk identification.Secondly,from the perspective of subject,environment and process,the risk factors of the project are analyzed.Based on the analysis results of the characteristics of forestry carbon sequestration PPP project,project design documents and literature reading,a total of 32 risk factors were identified.Through sample statistical analysis,4 risk factors were deleted.Through factor analysis,the remaining 28 risk factors are divided into 8 risk types.Finally,using the relationship between management elements and assuming the causal relationship between risk types,the risk action path of forestry carbon sequestration PPP project is obtained.Through the structural equation model,therisk action path is verified and appropriately adjusted.Risk action path divides risk types into the first level,the second level,the third level and the fourth level according to causality.Among them,the decision-making risk,environmental risk,organization and coordination risk and supervision risk located in the first two levels are the most important risks of forestry carbon sequestration PPP projects,and should be focused on prevention and control.