Research On The Impact Of Supply-side Structural Reform On Upstream And Downstream Enterprises And Transmission Mechanism

During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period,the problem of overcapacity in some industries in China has become increasingly serious.The steel industry is regarded as a key industry under the capacity reduction policy.Based on this background,this article focuses on the impact of the capacity reduction policy on the steel industry and its downstream enterprises.This article uses the input and output tables of 2012 and 2017,and the data of listed companies from 2013 to 2019 to determine the downstream industries of the steel industry based on the direct distribution coefficient.Then,this paper uses a regression discontinuity model to estimate the impact of capacity reduction on the upstream steel industry,a difference-in-differences model to estimate the impact of capacity reduction on its downstream industries,and an intermediary effect model to estimate the transmission mechanism between the steel industry and its downstream industries.We further do group regression according to different shareholding structures to explore different policy effects between state-owned holding enterprises and private enterprises.The regression results show that,the capacity reduction policy has significantly improved the performance of the steel industry.However,it significantly reduces the performance of enterprises in downstream industries,and the negative impact on downstream industries decreases as the degree of association with the steel industry decreases.In terms of different shareholding structures,state-owned holding companies in downstream industries are significantly positively affected by capacity reduction policies,while private enterprises in downstream industries are significantly negatively affected by capacity reduction policies.From the perspective of the transmission mechanism,the performance of the downstream industries declines partially due to the rise of steel prices.The research in this article helps to comprehensively examine the implementation effect of the capacity reduction policy,and provides some reference for more scientific,accurate and effective promotion of capacity reduction reform.