Simulation Of Natural Gas Terminal Price In Guangdong Province Based On CGE Model

As a clean,efficient and high-quality energy source,the extensive use of natural gas can effectively promote the country’s overall energy transformation.While promoting the utilization of natural gas,the natural gas price mechanism is not perfect,and the crosssubsidization of residential gas and industrial gas needs to be corrected by natural gas market reform.The purpose of this paper is to analyze the possible levels of residential gas and industrial gas and the economic development and macroeconomic indicators of Guangdong Province after the study of the natural gas industry in the more developed Guangdong Province.Impact.Therefore,this study constructed a computable general equilibrium model of natural gas in Guangdong Province by compiling a natural gas social accounting matrix of Guangdong Province with five energy sectors and seven nonenergy sectors.Quantitative analysis of the impact of price changes of 5%,10%,20% and the elimination of subsidy system on the economic development and macroeconomic indicators of Guangdong Province.The main conclusions of this paper include three points:(1)The simulation results of macro indicators show that the real GDP of Guangdong Province will decrease due to price changes.In addition to GDP changes not affected by price changes,other macro indicators are subject to price changes,including macroeconomic indicators in the same direction as price changes,including household consumption,CPI,imports,exports,consumption,and investment,and price changes.(2)Macroeconomic indicators in the opposite direction include household income,household welfare,and the relative price of labor and capital.The simulation results of the sectoral output indicators show that natural gas price changes will have a greater impact on the output of the natural gas industry.Price changes have led to changes in the same direction of output of coal,oil and services.The rise has led to an increase in the output of these alternative industries,and has a certain inhibitory effect on the output of the power industry.Industries that show changes in the opposite direction mainly include electricity,agriculture,chemicals,light industry,and heavy industry.(3)From the simulation results of the abolition of subsidies,although the income of residents and the welfare of residents have decreased,they will not have a huge impact on the consumption of residents in Guangdong Province.Through the natural gas subsidy calculation calculated by the price difference method,the elimination of subsidies will increase the total consumption of residents by 1.798 billion yuan,and the industrial users will reduce the loss by 11.209 billion yuan due to subsidies.For Guangdong Province,the elimination of subsidies does not have a huge impact on household consumption,but the role of industrial users is more obvious.The corresponding residential price and industrial gas price are 3.37 yuan / cubic meter,3.61 yuan cubic meters.Combined with the results of the simulation analysis,this paper believes that it can continue to carry out the pilot reform of natural gas prices in Guangdong Province,and promote the unification of the residential gas market and the industrial gas market in the province.The main steps for advancing the national natural gas price reform can be divided into three steps.The first step is to carry out the reform of residential gas use in the province,fully considering the residents’ affordability and economic development level;the second step is to promote the unification of the natural gas market in the province;Three steps to further improve the construction of the national price mechanism.