Research On Risk Assessment Of Prefabricated Building Construction Based On System Dynamics

The construction industry is the pillar industry of China’s economy,and the construction industrialization is the trend and trend of the world.At the same time,it is also the urgent need of China’s reform and development.Since the 1950 s,China’s construction industrialization has been carrying out standardization,modularization and prefabrication all over the country.In the late 1990 s,housing industrialization has stepped into a new stage,which has changed the mode of production in the field of housing.More and more attention has been paid to the prefabricated building industry,which has a considerable guarantee and development.With the rapid development of prefabricated buildings,the safety accidents can not be ignored.Relevant scholars found that the safety risk accidents mainly occurred in the construction stage through the investigation of assembly construction engineering.Because the research on the safety and risk of prefabricated buildings is more difficult than that of traditional buildings,it is urgent to conduct scientific and reasonable research on the safety and risk of prefabricated buildings,so as to provide reference for the development and decision-making of prefabricated buildings.Therefore,in order to reduce the accident rate and improve the safety level of assembly construction,this paper studies the risk assessment of assembly construction,including the following aspects.Firstly,a theoretical system suitable for construction risks of prefabricated buildings is constructed.The basic theories of prefabricated buildings and system dynamics are expounded separately.Combined with the problems faced by the prefabricated building during the construction process,and based on these basic theoretical systems,it lays the foundation for the specific method of solving problems later.Secondly,on the basis of digging deeply into the assembly construction data,according to the 4M1 E theory,five types of risk factors affecting assembly construction safety were analyzed and analyzed;400 questionnaire surveys were designed and launched in Liaoning Province,and SPSS software was used the validity and reliability of 350 valid questionnaires were tested.The factor analysis method was used to conduct statistical analysis on the collected survey data.The related influencing factors were further classified and reorganized,and a practical assembly safety evaluation index system for building construction was established.Nextly,the system dynamics and assembly building construction risk are combined,and the construction risk causality diagram is constructed using the Vensim simulation software.The quantitative causality relationship between each risk factor in the model is determined by the analytic hierarchy process,and the risk recognition feedback model is established.Risk flow diagram model.Finally,taking a prefabricated building project in Tianjin as an empirical study,using a single-factor change simulation method to simulate each subsystem,it is concluded that man-made risks have the greatest risk to the prefabricated building construction stage,and changes in environmental factors have little impact on the system.Finally,in order to improve the safety level of the project,the safety risk management and control measures of prefabricated building construction are proposed.It provides a reference for the safety evaluation of prefabricated buildings in the future,and promotes the healthy and stable development of prefabricated buildings.