Study On The Scale Of Shale Gas Development Under The Constraints Of Ecological CarryingCapacity

Shale gas is a kind of clean unconventional natural gas resource,which has attracted wide attention all over the world.China is rich in shale gas resources.Accelerating the exploration and development of shale gas is of great significance to optimizing the energy consumption structure,achieving green development and ensuring national energy security.The carrying capacity of the ecological environment is an important basis for evaluating regional sustainable development,which can provide a strong scientific support for the green development of shale gas development.This paper examines the vying blocks the development of history and the status quo.Based on all kinds of regional ecological environmental bearing capacity and the development research of the bearing capacity of the ecological environment of hubei vying block shale gas development and ecological environmental bearing capacity,the scale of shale gas development in Weiyuan block under the constraints of ecological environment carrying capacity has been established.Firstly,this paper studies the effective selection of the evaluation index of the ecological environment carrying capacity of shale gas development.Taking the resource and environmental impact generated by shale gas development as the pressure index of,and taking the property of the local ecological environment itself as the supporting index.The evaluation index system,which takes resources,environment,ecological resilience and social economy as subsystems,can comprehensively reflect the ecological environment carrying capacity of shale gas development.Secondly,the entropy TOPSIS model is used to assign the ecological carrying capacity of shale gas development in Weiyuan block.Results show that excavation first appraisal well 10 years since 2009,the ecological environmental carrying capacity of Weiyuan block is maintained at 0.4072?0.5356,and the minimum value of 0.4072 in 2014.Analyzing the reason for 2014 hubei vying block shale gas well construction on a large scale,and due to reasons such as technology limited,not good ecological protection measures.However,after the formal exploitation in 2015,the overall trend of shale gas development ecological environment carrying capacity is upward,indicating that the overall ecological environment carrying capacity of this block is general and has a large room to rise.In predictive evaluation,the system dynamics model is established,simulation analysis of the internal relation between each index in the evaluation index system of the rationality of the test and evaluation system are analyzed.Combined with the evaluation index weight and the system sensitivity analysis,chose nine sensitive parameters,respectively,per capita arable land area,surface water quality success rate,the rate of good air quality,hazard-free treatment rate of household garbage,fracturing fluid return displacement,population,GDP,the second industry output value proportion and the environmental protection investment.Based on this,four simulation schemes were set up.The comparison results showed that in the basic scenario scheme,the past development model could no longer meet the needs of sustainable development of shale gas development,and further optimization and improvement were needed.The ecological environment carrying capacity value dropped to the third place in 2035.The initial value of development priority type is not high,but the overall maintain steady growth,the bearing capacity of 2035 level has reached the second place.It shows that adopting the developing mode of this solution is ideal in the short term is reasonable,but from the long-term development needs,the ideal level of bearing capacity and a certain gap need to be further improved.In addition,although the environmental priority type plan showing a rising trend overall,its growth rate is the smallest of all the schemes Therefore,from the perspective of sustainable development and maximum improvement of shale gas development ecological environment carrying capacity,coordinated development scheme is the most ideal development scheme in the future.Finally,based on the analysis of the simulation results of ecological environment bearing capacity of Weiyuan block,we should adopt the coordinated development plan to realize the sustainable development of shale gas development.Under the coordinated development plan,the shale gas production index in the evaluation index system The simulation data shows that the optimal development scale of shale gas in 2035 is 5 billion m3.For the first time,this paper constructs an index system for the ecological environment carrying capacity of shale gas development from the four fields of resources,environment,ecological resilience,and social economy,and completes the evaluation of the current situation of shale gas development in Weiyuan block in combination with the entropy TOPSIS model.At the same time,the internal correlation of the whole evaluation system is simulated through the system dynamics model,and then the optimal shale gas development scale of Weiyuan block in 2035 is obtained through the simulation prediction.These results provide a possible solution for the sustainable development of shale gas development in China,and provide sufficient and favorable evidence for the researchers' further investigation.