Research On Greenhouse Gas Accounting And Emission Reduction Potential Of Urban Transport

In the context of serious global environmental pollution,the pollution caused by urban traffic also urgently needs to be resolved.The current situation of traffic pollution in my country can be alleviated by optimizing the structure of urban transportation development,improving the technical level of automobile energy saving and emission reduction,improving energy utilization efficiency,and accelerating the promotion of new energy vehicles.This paper takes various travel modes in urban transportation as the research object,reads the research literature of domestic and foreign scholars in this field,analyzes the research content of scholars,and studies the carbon emissions of low-carbon travel tools in urban transportation in China.The following:First,it introduces the research methods used in this article,which are mainly divided into three categories: carbon emission accounting models,prediction methods,and carbon emission potential analysis methods.The vehicle carbon emission accounting model adopts the "bottom-up" method mentioned in IPCC2006,which calculates the carbon dioxide produced by urban vehicles based on the number of vehicles,mileage,energy consumption coefficient,and emission factors.The prediction method uses gray prediction model and regression analysis method to predict the number of future traffic vehicles,so as to infer the future carbon emissions of vehicles.For carbon emission potential analysis,select the scenario analysis method and set three scenarios to analyze the carbon emission potential of vehicles.Second,take Shijiazhuang City as a specific case to calculate the city's transportation carbon emissions in the past ten years(2010-2019).According to the accounting results,two forecasting methods are used to predict the number of various types of vehicles in the next five years(2020-2024),and the optimal forecast result is selected.From the results,the carbon emissions of urban transportation in the next five years are calculated and used as a benchmark scenario to compare with low-carbon scenarios and enhanced scenarios.The situation analysis method is used to analyze the carbon dioxide emissions and emission reduction potential of traffic vehicles under each scenario.Finally,draw the final conclusion.Under the emission reduction scenario,the emission reductions for 2020-2024 are: 94,100 tons,1,164 million tons,1,089 million tons,1,324 million tons,and 1,326 million tons,which will reduce emissions by 5,844 million tons.Among them,electric buses have the greatest emission reduction potential,followed by gasoline private cars.Under the enhanced scenario,the emission reductions for 2020-2024 are: 9,153 million tons,1.011 million tons,1.082 million tons,1.182 million tons,and 1.259 million tons,a total of 5.449 million tons of emissions reduction.Among them,fuel-fueled private cars have the greatest potential in the front row and other vehicles have a small increase in carbon emissions.