The Research On The Spatial Distribution Of Two Zoonotic Diseases Based On GIS

Zoonoses can cause disease among humans and livestock.There are dozens of common zoonosis.Among them,Brucellosis and H7N9 avian influenza are more concerned in recent years in China.They have different levels of prevalence in different regions,which poses a great threat to China’s economy and people’s livelihood.It is urgent to use statistical software and mathematical tools to evaluate and predict transmission mechanism and epidemic law.The emergence of GIS and spatial analysis technology has provided us with a new perspective.It can perform deep processing and analysis on data related to spatial location,acquire new information,and explain the more intrinsic laws of things.At present,it has been widely used in the research of infectious diseases to explore the high-risk areas,distribution characteristics,epidemic law,and influencing factors of diseases.In this paper,based on the GIS software Arcgis 10.2,the methods of direction distribution,trend analysis,spatial autocorrelation analysis and regression analysis are applied to study Brucellosis in Shanxi province and H7N9 Avian Influenza in Central China,South China and East China.H7N9 Avian Influenza is a type of influenza A virus.Many types of birds can be infected.Chickens are most likely to be infected,ducks and geese are next.The main reason of Human H7N9 Avian Influenza is that contact with live birds.The first H7N9 case appeared in Shanghai,China,in 2013.Up to now,five wave epidemics have already taken place.In particular,it is more prevalent in the east coast of China and the southeast coastal areas.For this reason,this paper uses the methods of directional distribution,trend analysis,global and local spatial autocorrelation,and spatial regression analysis to study human H7N9 cases in 12 provinces of Central China,South China,and East China from march in 2013 to april in 2017.By drawing the geographical distribution map of the number of the infected person,we find out that the epidemic situation is more serious in Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Fujian,and Guangdong,and there is a proliferation trend.The result of trend analysis shows that the disease is more serious in the eastern and southern regions.The direction distribution indicates that the distribution of cases has a clear directionality and aggregation,and shows a distribution pattern of “Northeast-Southwest”.Secondly,the Moran’s I index value is positive in the five wave epidemic,and there is a positive spatial correlation.The High-low clustering results show high-value clustering.Local spatial autocorrelation reveals that high incidence hotspots area are concentrated,mainly in the eastern and southern coastal,including Wuxi,Changzhou,Suzhou,Nantong in Jiangsu Province,Jinhua,Shaoxing,Hangzhou,Jiaxing,Huzhou in Zhejiang Province and Shanghai City.Some areas in Guangdong Province and Fujian Province also appeared hot spots in the second and third seasons.Finally,regression analysis shows that there was a correlation between the number of cases and latitude,longitude,and the number of farmers’ markets,which increased with the increase of longitude and the number of farmers’ markets,and decreased with the increase of latitude.Brucellosis is caused by Brucella,which can make people and many animals sick.Human infection with brucellosis is due to contact with sick animals and eating Brucella-contaminated food.In our country,28 provinces and cities have different degrees of prevalence.Especially in the northern and western regions,the epidemic situation is even more serious.In recent years,the policies for the agricultural industry have been adjusted,and the livestock industry has also continued to develop in Shanxi Province.This phenomenon led to the gradual expansion of the epidemic.In view of this,this paper applies the methods of trend analysis,spatial autocorrelation analysis,and dynamic modeling to study the spread of human brucellosis in Shanxi province from 2005 to 2012.Geographical distribution maps reveal that there are a large number of human brucellosis in Xinzhou,Shuozhou,Datong,and Jinzhong,while there are fewer cases in Taiyuan,Jincheng,and Yangquan.The overall trend shows a decline from east to west and from north to south.Global spatial analysis shows that there is a positive spatial correlation and high-value clustering of the brucellosis distribution in Shanxi Province in the eight years.Further local analysis reveals that high-risk areas are relatively concentrated.These areas are mainly distributed in northern and central counties,including Tianzhen,Yanggao,Datong in Datong City;Fanzhi and Shenchi in Xinzhou City;Districts,yingxian in Shouzhou City;Taigu,Yushe and Qixian of Jinzhong City.In addition,a dynamic model of plaque dynamics with migration of sheep was established.Using the number of cases of brucellosis in Shanxi Province from 2005 to 2012 to verify the rationality of the model,and to predict the future development trend of brucellosis in Shanxi province.