| Objective:1.Through investigation and analysis of the epidemic characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease in a region of tianjin from 2015 to 2017,the epidemic situation of hand-foot-mouth disease in the region is understood.2.The ARIMA model was used to predict the incidence of foot and foot disease in each month of 2018.3.By further exploring the relationship between the average monthly temperature,PM2.5 and the incidence of HFMD in the investigated area,it provides a basis for predicting the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in the region.4.Through case-control study,the factors affecting the incidence of HFMD were further explored and the basis for the prevention and treatment of hand-foot-mouth disease in the area was provided.Methods:1.By the centers for disease control and prevention in the survey area meteorological department,department of population statistics and weather,gathering2015-2017,foot and mouth disease incidence,population data and the monthly average temperature and the monthly average PM2.5 values.Through descriptive analysis,the three distribution characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease in the area investigated in 2015-2017 were described.The correlation analysis was used to analyze the pathogenesis of hand-foot-mouth disease and the average monthly temperature and PM2.5 in the area investigated in 2015-2017.2.Selection in June 2017 to August 2017,tianjin district medical institutions in attendance,and was diagnosed with hand,foot and mouth disease as the case group,90 cases of aged 0.5-10 years old,and at the same time,the selection and other cases patients at the same hospital 90 cases of hand,foot and mouth disease children as control group,case-control study.Through case-control studies,we further explored the factors affecting the incidence of HFMD,and analyzed which were the protective factors and which were the risk factors.Results:1.The distribution of hand-foot-mouth disease in 2015-2017: the trend of the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in 2015-2017 was basically the same,with the incidence rate highest in July and showing a certain seasonality.The local distribution of hand-foot-mouth disease in 2015-2017: mainly in the streets of 12011611,12011602 and 12011603.The population distribution of hand-foot-mouth disease in 2015-2017: HFMD has the highest incidence in 1-4 years old and the lowest incidence in children under 1year old.The incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease was higher in males than in females in 2015-2017,and concentrated among scattered children and kindergarten children.2.Based on the hand-foot-mouth disease data from January 2015 to December2017 in the study area,an ARIMA(0,1,0)model was constructed with a stationary R2=0.83,RMSE=28.23,MAPE=248.59,and MaxAPE=3581.04.The ARIMA model has a good fitting effect.It is predicted that the incidence of HFMD will decrease in January to may and October to December in 2018,and increase in June to September.This trend is similar to the trend in the region within three years,that is,there is also a certain degree of seasonality and periodicity.3.The incidence of HFMD in the investigated area was positively correlated with the average monthly temperature,with a correlation coefficient of 0.762,P value<0.05.After controlling the temperature,the partial correlation analysis of the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease and PM2.5 showed that the partial correlation coefficient r=0.1102,P=0.577,there was no significant correlation between them.4.‘Whether know the prevention and control measures of HFMD’,sucking toys,‘drinking unboiled water’,sucking finger,‘wash hands after toilet’,shared towels,toy disinfection,‘history of exposure one week before onset’ are the correlates of HFMD.Among them,‘whether know the prevention and control measures of HFMD’,toy disinfection are protective factors,and the rest are risk factors.Conclusion:1.The incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in the surveyed regions in2015-2017 showed seasonal characteristics,mainly in June-August.Regional distribution is dominated by bustling streets.The population distribution shows that there are more males,concentrated in the 1-4 age group,and the overall incidence of scattered children and kindergarten children is relatively high.2.It is predicted that the incidence of HFMD will decrease in January to may and October to December in 2018,and increase in June to September.3.Meteorological factors in the area will affect the incidence of HFMD.The incidence of HFMD was positively associated with monthly mean temperature,and no correlation with PM2.5.4.‘Whether know the prevention and control measures of HFMD’,sucking toys,‘drinking unboiled water’,sucking finger,‘wash hands after toilet’,shared towels,toy disinfection,‘history of exposure one week before onset’ are the correlates of HFMD.Among them,‘whether know the prevention and control measures of HFMD’,toy disinfection are protective factors,and the rest are risk factors. |
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