Time And Spatial Variation Trends And Model Prediction Of Maternal Mortality In China

Obstractive This study aimed to study the spatial and temporal trends of maternal mortality in China,to explore the changes in maternal mortality,to predict whether China's maternal mortality rate can meet the goals set in the Outline of the 2030 Plan for Healthy China,to understand the level of maternal mortality in China at the global level,and to provide a scientific basis for the formulation and improvement of maternal and child health policies by the Chinese government.Methods The data of maternal mortality and economic indicators used in this study are from the China Health and Family Planning Statistics Yearbook,the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics of China and the official website of the World Bank.All statistical methods include K-means clustering method,ARIMA time model prediction method,Spearman rank correlation method,analogy analysis method,etc.Results(1)Maternal mortality is the lowest in eastern provinces,followed by central provinces,and higher in Western provinces,especially in Tibet.(2)From 1991 to 2017,the maternal mortality rates in China,cities and rural areas decreased by 75.5%,64.1% and 78.9% respectively.(3)The predicted result of ARIMA time prediction model is that the maternal mortality rate in China will be 17.7/100,000 in 2020.(4)Maternal mortality in China is positively correlated with the proportion of private health expenditure to total health expenditure,negatively correlated with the proportion of total health expenditure to GDP,and negatively correlated with the proportion of government health expenditure to total health expenditure.(5)The average annual decline rate of maternal mortality in China is higher than that in most other middle and high income countries;China is the fastest declining country in APEC countries and BRICS countries.Conclutions(1)The maternal mortality rate in China shows an increasing trend from east to west,which is roughly consistent with the distribution of China's economic development.(2)The maternal mortality rate in rural and urban areas is declining,while the gap between rural and urban areas is gradually narrowing.(3)According to the forecasting results,China can achieve the target of reducing maternal mortality rate to below 18.0/100,000 in 2020,which was put forward in the Outline of the "Healthy China 2030" Plan.(4)Our government should continue to optimize the structure of health financing,increase investment in health resources,and give full play to the government's macro-control function.