Trend Prediction And Influencing Factors Of Infant Mortality In Shandong Province And Qinghai Province

Objective:To describe the development status and characteristics of infant mortality in Shandong Province and Qinghai Province.Through the analysis of the factors affecting infant mortality in Shandong Province and Qinghai Province,we will find out the problems in the development of infant mortality between Shandong Province and Qinghai Province.Use the infant mortality data from Shandong Province and Qinghai Province to explore regional differences in infant mortality.The mathematical model was used to fit the infant mortality data in Shandong Province and Qinghai Province,and the optimal model was selected for short-term prediction of infant mortality.Based on the changes in infant mortality,countermeasures are proposed to promote infant health.Methods:The main data sources for infant mortality were obtained through literature search and collection of second-hand statistics.The infant mortality data of Shandong Province from 2000 to 2017 and the infant mortality data of Qinghai Province from 2010 to 2017 were statistically described,and the gray prediction model GM(1,1)was used to predict the infant mortality rate in Shandong Province and Qinghai Province.Correlation analysis and linear regression analysis of infant mortality in Shandong Province and Qinghai Province were conducted using SPSS 19.0 to investigate the influencing factors of infant mortality in Shandong Province and Qinghai Province.The factors affecting infant mortality in Shandong Province and the influencing factors of infant mortality in Qinghai Province were compared to explore the differences.Results:1 The infant mortality rate in Shandong Province dropped from 20.47‰ in 2000 to 4.12‰ in 2017.The national infant mortality rate dropped from 32.2‰ in 2000 to 6.8‰ in 2017.Since 2002,the infant mortality rate in Shandong Province The rate of decline is lower than the national average.It is predicted that the infant mortality rate in Shandong Province in 2018-2022 will be 3.65‰,3.33‰,3.04‰,2.77‰,2.52‰,respectively.After multiple linear regression analysis,the total health expenditure will be the proportion of GDP,the number of health personnel per 10,000 population,the illiteracy rate and The basic medical insurance participation rate and the infant mortality rate in Shandong Province were statistically significant(P<0.05).2 The infant mortality rate in Qinghai Province dropped from 16.07‰ in 2010 to 9.86‰ in 2017.It is predicted that the infant mortality rates in Qinghai Province in 2018-2022 are 8.76‰,8.20‰,7.69‰,7.20‰,6.75‰,respectively.Multiple linear regression analysis showed that the total health expenditure as a percentage of GDP and the basic medical insurance participation rate and the infant mortality rate in Qinghai Province were statistically significant(P<0.05).Conclusion:In 2010-2017,the infant mortality rates in Shandong Province and Qinghai Province showed a downward trend.The gap between infant mortality rates in the two provinces is gradually narrowing.It is predicted that infant mortality rates in Shandong Province and Qinghai Province will continue to decline in the short term,economic and medical security.Factors are a common factor in the decline in infant mortality.In order to further reduce the infant mortality rate,the government should increase the economic input of maternal and child health care,improve the maternal and child health care service system,and improve the medical security level of women and children.