Study Of Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease In Hunan Province With Epidemic Dynamic Model

Objective:(1)To analysis the incidence and prevalence and general characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease in Hunan Province;(2)By combining the basic information of hand-foot-mouth disease in Hunan Province from 2013 to 2017,to establish the infectious disease dynamics model of hand-foot-mouth disease in Hunan Province,moreover,the infection coefficient and the basic regeneration number of hand-footmouth disease in Hunan Province were obtained;(3)Numerical simulations were performed using established models to explore the optimal proportion of treatment for the prevention and control of handfoot-mouth disease in Hunan Province.Thus to provide numerical basis for the prevention and control of hand-foot-mouth disease in Hunan Province.Method:(1)Obtaining the data of the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Hunan Province from 2013 to 2017 through the infectious disease direct reporting system of Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,then,find out the basic transmission patterns and characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease in Hunan Province;(2)According to the situation of high incidence every other year of hand-footmouth disease in Hunan Province,by using the theory and method of compartment dynamics model,the dynamic models of infectious diseases of high incidence and low incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease were established respectively.Model parameter were obtained by literature review,parameter identification and data projection;By using the goodness-of-fit test to predict the effect of the model and verify the reliability of the model;Calculate the basic number of regenerations with the second generation matrix method;(3)The optimal ratio of prevention and control of hand-foot-mouth disease is obtained by numerical simulation of the established model.Results:(1)In 2013-2017,the total number of patients with handfoot-mouth disease in Hunan Province was reported to be 790,057,and 107 deaths.The average case fatality rate was 0.0135 ‰,showing a high incidence every other year.The incidence rate begins to rise significantly from April.(2)The epidemic dynamic model of HFMD both in highincidence rate year and low-incidence rate year are established for Hunan province.The results of goodness of fit test illustrated that the constructed model can simulate the actual situation of HFMD in Hunan.Through the established model,the infection rate coefficient β that obtained for the high-incidence rate year is 5.614,the basic reproduction number is 4.789.Moreover,the infection rate coefficient β for the low-incidence rate year is 5.581,the basic reproduction number is 3.192.The basic reproduction number quantitative illustrated that HFMD will continue the trend of continuous transmission in Hunan.(3)The results of numerical HFMD model simulation indicated that when the proportion of HFMD patients’ medical service obtaining of the high-incidence year reached 88.6% and the low-incidence year reached 86.1%,the transmission of HFMD in Hunan would be effectively controlled.Conclusion:(1)The HFMD epidemic dynamic model was established,which could reflect the epidemic pattern of HFMD in Hunan province;(2)The HFMD will remain the trend of transmission in Hunan;(3)When the proportion the HFMD patient medical service obtaining of the high-incidence rate year reached 88.6% and the low-incidence rate year reached 86.1%,the transmission of HFMD will be effectively controlled.