The Supply Dilemma Of Health-care Services For The Aged In Gansu

With the increase of the population aging,the pension pressure is more and more heavy.According to the United Nations predicts that by 2020,China's aging population will reach 248 million,accounted for 17% of the total population.On the one hand,with the improvement of people's living standard,the old people not only put forward more needs,also put forward more requirements of the service quality.On the other hand,endowment of resources in our country is very limited,it's very difficult to meet the demand of the all elderly people.Since 2011,The state council enacted the social endowment service system construction plan,and in 2015 enacted guidance to support the development of conbinating medical health with endowment service,the social endowment has played a more and more important role.The " conbination medical health with endowment service " has became the key method to solve the problem of an ageing population,and it is a basic engineering to promote healthy endowment,relationship to the stability of the society,is an important indicator for the realization of well-off society.Thus,how to establish an effective demand forecasting system of the " conbination medical health with endowment service ",to coping with the future demand of the elderly,and alleviating endowment pressure become the important task for scientific workers.The ariticle based on the elderly population and The sixth census in Gansu province as the research object,using PADIS software predicted the elderly population in 2017-2050.Then searched CHARLS(China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study)and data of the old people living mode,predicting the elderly self-care ability and probability of family care resources acquisition in Gansu.Last using the data of above to make a prediction for Gansu's needs of the elderly social endowment service in 2017-2050.Through the research about pilot unit of Lanzhou,Gansu province,and the result of forecast to finding the possible problems of the "conbination medical health with endowment service" in the future and put forward the corresponding countermeasures.It provides the basis for reasonable allocation and planning of endowment service resource,and the basis for promoting the development of local society.