Analysis Of The Influence Of Population Growth And Age Structure Change On Economic Growth

Human is the foundation of the society and the fundamental motive force for the development of social progress.The economic activity of human being in social life is the object of economics research.Changes in the demographic situation have an impact on society,economy and politics,so any slight change in population may be the cause of economic change.Therefore,population growth,population age structure change and other demographic changes have always been the problem of economic research.China is the most populous country in the world.A large number of people not only provide ample labor for our country,but also provide a broad consumer market for economic growth.In the early stage of reform and opening up,our country relies on this population foundation to undertake a large number of labor-intensive industrial transfer,for the development of China's market economy to explore the first pot of gold.However,with the development of the economy and society,the older population began to age with the growth of aging,the growing elderly population became the burden of support for the whole society.There has been a long history of research on the impact of population growth and changes in the age structure of the population on economic operation and Development,and the relevant research literature is vast.However,the definition of the nature of the impact of population growth on economic growth has not yet been unified into a consistent view,forming only a series of optimistic,or pessimistic,or neutral views.Pessimists argue that population growth has a negative impact on economic growth,and optimists,by contrast,see the impact as positive and positive.In the eyes of neutrals,population growth has no significant impact on economic growth.In the theory of the relationship between population age structure and economic growth,the age structure with a large proportion of the working-age population and a lower total dependency ratio is still considered to be the "demographic dividend" to promote sustained economic growth.With the changing age structure of the population,in the context of the gradual depletion of the demographic dividend,economists,in their in-depth study of population ageing,put forward the concept of a"second demographic dividend",arguing that the continued increase in the proportion of the elderly population and the increasing life expectancy can bring sufficient social capital.Based on the theory of endogenous growth model,this paper establishes a theoretical model between population growth,population age structure and economic growth,uses per capita GDP index to express economic growth,and selects population growth rate,elderly population dependency ratio,children's population dependency ratio to describe population growth and age structure change,with labor force growth rate,The labor force participation rate and life expectancy represent the human capital situation,and also select the total fixed capital formation and government consumption expenditure to describe the two factors which have important influence on economic growth,such as capital investment and government scale.In the empirical analysis,the first order lag of GDP per capita is also used as one of the explanatory variables,and the dynamic panel data is formed.In the process of empirical analysis,this paper mainly uses dynamic panel data analysis,dynamic panel threshold model and generalized moment estimation method to analyze the impact of population growth and population age structure change on economic growth.Through the empirical analysis,this paper mainly draws the following conclusions:First,the population growth rate in different ranges on the impact of economic growth is different,with 0%as the threshold,in the range of less than 0%,the population growth rate has a significant positive impact on GDP per capita;second,The influence of elderly population dependency ratio on economic growth is complex and contradictory,and its influence is not qualitative in empirical analysis,but the positive influence of elderly population dependency ratio and life expectancy on total savings rate is determined by further analysis.Thirdly,from the data of the analysis results,the dependency ratio of children has a significant negative impact on economic growth.But given that this segment of the demographic burden will shift to labor as you get older,the impact of changes in the dependency ratio of children should be viewed more comprehensively and in the longer term.In this paper,the dynamic panel threshold model is applied to the empirical analysis of population and economic growth,and the nonlinear influence relationship between population growth rate and elderly population dependency ratio on economic growth is clarified,which proves that the population growth rate and the dependency ratio of the elderly population are not the same in different ranges,and the influence on economic growth is not the same.It is also analyzed that the dependency ratio and life expectancy of the elderly have a positive effect on the increase of the total savings rate.However,there are many limitations in the research of this paper.In the model analysis,there is a lack of variables to describe the progress of science and technology,ignoring the impact of technology as an important factor on the economy;human capital is manifested only through the growth rate of the labour force,the labour force participation rate and life expectancy,and lacks the portrayal of the quality of human capital;In addition,for the "second demographic dividend" The impact on economic growth is also lacking in specific measures and measures.