A Study On The Influence Of Population Aging On Economic Growth In China

This paper not only analyzes the current situation,characteristics and reasons of population aging in China,but also collects the data from 2003 to 2014 in 30 provinces,and selects the data of per capita Real GDP,age dependency ratio,birth rate,technological innovation ability,average years of schooling,age of labor,and saving rate.In addition,which based on endogenous economic theory,and deduced the theoretical model.as well as built the static panel model and dynamic panel model for a certain empirical analysis.The result shows that under the influence of population aging,the savings rate has a weak effect on economic growth,while the labor force still has a significant positive effect on it.The birth rate of the population is positively correlated with economic growth.secondly,The aging of the population has an inverse U-shaped curve of economic growth,that is to say,in the short term,we can find that it is missed that the influence of the elder to economic growth from this inverted U curve.moreover,it is concluded that this threshold value of the national population dependency ratio is 10.83% in the threshold model,if the old-age population dependency ratio is lower than 10.83%,population aging will promote economic growth,or else population aging will heavily affect economic growth.In the eastern region,the critical value of the elderly population dependency ratio is 10.21%,the central region is 10.60%,and the western region is 12.84%.Finally,from the national population growth speed,this central and western regions are the fastest of all.China has already been in the negative stage that effects of.aging population to economic growth.