The Implementation Of The Two-child Policy's Economic Influence On Income Mobility

The correct fertility policy has a bearing on the well-being of hundreds of millions of families in China,as well as the national strength and national fortune of a country.China's family planning policy has always been unchanged and needs to be adjusted according to changes in the specific population situation and fertility rate.According to the data,China's total fertility rate in 2012 was only 1.639.Internationally,the total fertility rate of 2.1 is the basic condition for achieving and maintaining intergenerational replacement.Because of this severe low fertility rate,the Third Plenary Session of the 18 th Central Committee of the People's Republic of China decided to launch a "single two-child" policy in 2013.The fertility rate was only 1.656 in 2014,which is only 0.009 higher than last year.Therefore,in October 2015,the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18 th CPC Central Committee put forward a comprehensive implementation of the policy that a couple can have two children.There are many factors that affect people's fertility decision,including economic factors.Whether or not they can afford them is the first consideration for each family.There is no doubt that the number of children will also have a certain impact on the social position of the per capita income of households.Therefore,it is very important to explore how different birth types of family income flow before and after childbirth.Scholars have less research on the combination of fertility policy and family income mobility before.Therefore,based on the micro survey data of CFPS,this paper starts from the perspective of income mobility,first introduces the research methods of income mobility,mainly based on the income mobility matrix,constructs the measurement indicators of absolute and relative income mobility index;This paper studies the income mobility level of the families who are in line with the China fertility policy and whose mothers are under 55 years old under the background of opening up the two-child policy in an all-round way;Secondly,we divide these families into childless family,one child family and two child family,analyze the income mobility of different family size,and discuss the difference of income mobility of these three families and the difference between urban and rural areas;Finally,we study the impact of income mobility of families by establishing multiple Logit models,and explore other factors that affect the mobility of family income besides the scale of birth.The results show that:first,by labeling families with different birth scales as "childless,one child and two children",the matrix elements of family income transformation can be decomposed to get the income transformation matrix of different types of families,so as to analyze the income mobility and its characteristics of different types of families,which is effective;Second,the mobility of household income is gradually weakened,the solidification degree of high-income class is more serious,and the solidification degree of urban family is higher than that of rural family;Third,there is no significant change in the income mobility of two-child families before and after giving birth to two children,but the flow direction changed to downward mobility.Poor two-child families are more likely to become poorer,while wealthy families' income mobility is accelerating,but the degree of solidification is still very serious,which has further expanded the income gap of two-child families;Fourth,compared with the three types of households,the income mobility and structure of rural households are better,and the income mobility structure of one-child families is relatively better;Fifth,the three types of households have their own income liquidity defects.First of all,the three types of households do not have a stable "date stone" structure.Secondly,the upward mobility of childless families has increased,partly due to the downward mobility of income after the birth of one and two children.Finally,the second child family flows down faster,and it is more difficult to improve the income level;Sixth,the income hierarchy of two-child families is more likely to be lower than that of the other two types of families.One-child families are more likely to move up than two-child families.The higher the education level of the father,the more obvious the "incentive effect" on the upward mobility of income,and the higher the education level of the mother,the more "protective effect" can be played,effectively reducing the probability of downward mobility.Parents with insurance can't make income flow upwards,but it can effectively prevent lower income levels.The higher the parents' confidence in their future life,the more satisfied they are,the greater the possibility of downward mobility.