| Population question has been influenced Chinese sustainable development and also key factor of economic and social development. Achieving a major and important key of quick development of Chinese economy and society, it was closely related to the population numbers, the population quality, the population structure, the population distribution. Any mistakes on population issues will become long-term impact and will be difficult to reverse in the economic and social development. The total fertility rate is an important entry point for analyzing population questions, it will accurately reflect change of China’s population growth. But estimating China’s total fertility rate had a lot of different methods and results, produced the doubt of total fertility rate’s accurate, while the changing accurate of total fertility rate is essential to analyzing demographic dividend whether due to population structure analysis brought. It will make interference to analyzing affecting factors of total fertility rate fluctuation.Therefore this article along the following lines to build the main contents, it will contain:Firstly, building r model of the ability to a relatively accurate of estimating China’s total fertility rate, and calculating the numerical of the total fertility rate in recent years; Secondly, using the life cycle model as a theoretical basis and making the extension, analyzing the effect of demographic dividend because of the change of the total fertility rate; thirdly, using the overlapping generations model as a theoretical basis and making the extension, analyzing the dynamic relationship among the structure of marriage, Social Security and the total fertility rate. Finally, because of change of the fertility policy, it can make the Chinese total fertility rate of return to what extent. By the research ideas, paper is divided into eight chapters. The first chapter is the introduction text, it introduces the background and significance, main content, research ideas and innovations and shortcomings. The second chapter is the literature review of domestic and foreign, combed and studied related literature of domestic and foreign, and proposed insufficient of existing literature. The third chapter is related concepts and theoretical basis, this paper describes the main concepts and describes theoretical basis of the subsequent empirical analysis. Form the fourth chapter to the seven chapter, it is the sections of numerical simulation and empirical analysis. It contains that Chinese total fertility rate estimated, the relation of the total fertility rate impacting on the demographic dividend, factors of the total fertility rate change, the relation of the fertility policy and the total fertility rate. The eight chapter is the summary and policy recommendations. Based on the analysis, the main conclusions contain:(1) Because the indicator variables of the total fertility rate can not be consistent with the actual accurate, and whether or not the index value for the accuracy of subsequent empirical research is very important. The current method of estimating the total fertility rate is more, after a comprehensive analysis, in order to stabilize the population model was constructed, this paper bases on the r model to estimate the total fertility rate, r model to estimate the total fertility rate is most close to reality, and using of 2004-2013 related data, r model describes the actual operation about estimated total fertility rate form 2004 to 2013, the total fertility rate of between 1.648 to 1.671. And got the total fertility rate form 1961 to 2013, the total fertility rate is between 1.510 to 6.161 in complete time series.(2) In the empirical results of analyzing the relation of total fertility rate and Chinese demographic dividend:first of all, the decline of the total fertility rate can improve the promotion of the demographic dividend. The empirical results of China, the United States and Philippines have been corresponding. All Chinese provinces spatial econometric tests also proved that view. Secondly, making the demarcation point some year whether the total fertility rate is more than two, and time variable is introduced as a dummy variable, the correlation coefficient both the total fertility rate and demographic dividend-0.658 and-0.005. This shows that at higher levels of fertility conditions, quickly reducing the total fertility rate is particularly advantageous for a substantial increase in the demographic dividend. Thirdly, empirical results of the Japanese total fertility rate and demographic dividend show that at lower the total fertility rate, total fertility rate continues to decline, but makes the demographic dividend decline, which to the Chinese sounded the alarm to alert since the total fertility rate is too low resulting in reduced demographic dividend. Finally, squares regression coefficients of the total fertility rate can find, so that the current total fertility rate did not reach the turning point of China’s demographic dividend, which indicates China are still possibilities to reducing the total fertility rate improving the demographic dividend, but the Chinese demographic dividend increases very little using to the approach of declining the total fertility rate, and to be very cautious.(3) In the analysis of the dynamic relationship between the total fertility rate, social security and marriage structures, mainly making the marriage structure variable as threshold variable, and it is making the threshold empirical analysis. From the empirical analysis results, when the social security income can increase, personal income substitution effect greater impact, then the increase of personal income will allow raising the opportunity cost of fostering children, thereby reducing the fertility desires of the family, deducing the total fertility rates. But because the child is the family choice, if we can make to increasing the possibility of the making family, then it will improve the marriage structure rises to promoting Chinese total fertility rate. To further verify the accuracy of the relationship between the three variables, the paper selects ASEAN dates with Chinese same variable, empirical analysis conclusions of these variables of ASEAN countries show a similar conclusion with China.(4) The fertility policy change will have a greater impact to the total fertility rate, after carrying out the "second child" fertility policy, the paper chooses some variables and uses the queuing model, estimates 2016-2020 the total fertility rate because of fertility policy change. According to fertility desire, the paper desire two different plans. One is the total fertility rate change under ideal conditions, other is the total fertility rate change under conditional distribution. On the assumption that the total fertility rate in 2015 was 1.5, the total fertility rate of the first plan may change interval 2.14 to 2.18, the total fertility rate of the other plan may change interval 1.53 to 1.73. The paper think that when considering the cost of raising children, the number of the total fertility of conditional distribution is more reasonable. The total fertility rate of all plans changing can prove the demographic dividend. |
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