The Empirical Analysis Of The Effect Of Population Age Structure On Bank Credit:Evidence From China's Provincial Panel Data

In China,bank credit plays an important role in the scale of social financing.It is an important driving force for economic development and a source of funds for the development of the real economy.In recent years,the Chinese government has launched many special credit programs in order to transform the economic development pattern,deepen the supply-side structural reform and realize the goal of a well-off society comprehensively.Those have transformed the structure of credit.And we are also in a time when the age structure of our population is changing dramatically: the fertility rate continues to decline,the population aging degree deepens,and the demographic dividend gradually disappears.To cope with the aging population and sub-replacement fertility problems,China's population policy has shifted from the “Family Planning” policy to the“Universal Two-child” policy.Moreover,the Chinese government is still rolling out a series of population policies to ease the aging and childless population problem.In this day and age,it is not only an important period of China's economic development and transformation,and also the population age structure adjustment.Taking the population age structure as the starting point,the research on its influence mechanism on bank credit can enrich the research content of credit influencing factors.At the same time,it can also provide reliable data support for the credit policy making.The purpose of this paper is to find the internal relationship and effect path between population age structure and credit by analyzing the effect mechanism of population age structure on bank credit,so as to put forward recommendations for the implementation of population and credit policies.First,this paper introduces the research background,significance and methods.In addition,the innovation and deficiency of this paper are also expounded.Second,it review the literature of Chinese and foreign scholars.And then,draw up the preliminary conception of this paper.Thirdly,on the basis of the western population theory,we use mathematical model to analyze the direct effect of the change of population age structure on credit.Then,by analyzing the life cycle consumption theory and the permanent income hypothesis model,we derive the indirect effect of population age structure on credit through the two paths of consumption and investment.Fourth,this paper constructs a static panel data model using panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2004 to 2017.And the direct effect of age structure on credit was studied by region.Further,the impulse response function is described by constructing PVAR model.The indirect effect mechanism of population age structure on credit is analyzed by usingit.Finally,it summarizes the empirical analysis and puts forward some recommendations on the current population age structure and credit policies.The research conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)there is a negative correlation between population age structure and short-term credit.Among them,the proportion of population aged 0 to 14 in the total population has the least impact on short-term credit.If the proportion of population aged 0 to 14 decreases by 1%,the proportion of short-term credit in the total credit will increase by 1.27%.The proportion of the population aged 15-64 had the greatest impact on short-term credit.When it falls by 1%,the proportion of short-term credit in total credit goes up by 7.4%.(2)There is a positive correlation between population age structure and medium-and long-term credit.The proportion of people aged 15-64 in the total population also has the greatest impact on the medium to long term.When it falls by 1%,medium-and long-term credit as a share of total credit falls by 2.6%.(3)Different regions have different age structures.This leads to different demand for credit.Aging and childlessness are more serious in the eastern and central regions of China.There will be greater demand for short-term credit.The western region has a younger population structure and more demand for medium-and long-term credit.(4)Over time,the eastern region will indirectly increase the proportion of medium-and long-term credit through fixed asset investment.The central region will increase the proportion of medium-and long-term credit through consumption and fixed asset investment.The western region indirectly increases the short-term credit ratio through fixed asset investment.Based on the conclusion of this paper,the following recommendations are put forward:(1)to improve the population policies,including birth subsidy policy,female career security policy.At the same time,each region should adjust the talent introduction policy according to the regional population structure present situation.(2)Improve the risk management level of short-term credit to prevent systemic financial risks.(3)Control the scale of medium and long-term credit to prevent the risk of inflation.