Analysis And Research On The Effects Of Coal-fired Alternative Air Pollution Control Policies

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,as one of the three world-class city clusters proposed by the State Council to be built during the"13th Five-Year Plan"period,has been plagued by atmospheric pollution,which has caused long-term negative impacts on the health of local people and the image of the city.In order to effectively improve the atmospheric environment,since 2013,the State Council has issued"Air Pollution Prevention Action Plan","Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areas 2017 Air Pollution Prevention Work Plan"and other air pollution prevention and control policies mainly aimed at coal replacement.However,while these policies have the effect of pollution control,they also inevitably cause many adverse effects on the daily lives of local rural residents.Based on the above background,this paper uses theoretical methods such as literature synthesis,data collection,trend analysis,and system dynamics to first analyze the changes in air quality in various regions of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei since 2013 and the negative impact of coal replacement policies.Based on the population,economy,and energy consumption structure changes of the main coal-burning entities in various regions,a system dynamic model of coal-burning and corresponding air pollutant emissions in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei regions is constructed,and the basic behavior of the system is simulated and Sensitivity analysis,the corresponding research results show that:In the heating season of large-scale implementation of coal replacement policies,the air quality indicators for the heating season of 2017 and the following two years have been greatly improved from the four-year heating season indicators from 2013 to spring 2017 before implementation,and the improvement is significantly better than the non-heating season.,But at the same time it also caused the heating cost of low-income rural residents to rise.The system dynamic simulation and prediction results show that the emissions of NO₂,SO₂and particulate matter from coal combustion in Beijing and Tianjin all show a year-on-year downward trend,and the decline rate is more than 75%.Among them,the emission of coal-fired pollutants in Beijing is more sensitive to the change of rural coal substitution policies from the initial stage to the later stage,but its sensitivity to coal substitution policies in thermal power and heating industries is just the opposite.Tianjin's coal-fired pollutant emissions have a similar change trend to rural coal-fired substitution policy sensitivity,but its sensitivity to coal substitution policies in thermal power and heating industries has always been high and there is an upward trend.The NO₂and SO₂ emissions from coal burning in Hebei Province have shown a trend of slowly increasing year by year,and only the emissions of particulate matter have been decreasing year by year.At the same time,the sensitivity of coal-fired particulate matter emissions in Hebei Province to coal substitution policies has changed from insensitive at the initial stage to more sensitive at the later stage.