An Analysis And Research On The Development Of The Number Of Ordinary Middle Schools In Shandong Province

As a basic project of China for building a well-off society in an all-round way,education is an important way to achieve national rejuvenation.In all levels of education,as the interface between primary education and higher education,ordinary middle schools play a key role in the education system of our country.Firstly,according to the number of ordinary middle schools and the number of students in school,the cluster analysis method is used to classify 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions of China.The results of the analysis puts Shandong Province,Hebei Province,Anhui Province,Hunan Province and Sichuan Province into the same class.These five provinces are all major provinces of education.Therefore,this paper selects Shandong Province as the representative to study the development of ordinary middle schools' quantity.Since the founding of the People's Republic of China,the number of ordinary middle schools and the number of enrolled students have reflected the changes of an era,reflected the progress and development of education in our province.Based on the relevant data,the analysis and comparison of the development trends revealed that they were affected by various educational policies,class capacity and school scale.The number of secondary schools is not exactly the same as the number of enrolled students.Next,the ARIMA model is fitted to the two time series after processing,and the two fitting models are used to predict the development in the next five years.We conclude that the number of ordinary middle schools in Shandong Province and the number of enrolled students will basically stabilize in the next five years.After analyzing the development of ordinary middle schools,this paper selects four influencing factors from the aspects of policy,economy and population,using multiple linear regression and principal component regression respectively to analyze and study the development of the number of ordinary middle schools from 1996 to 2016.However,the result of multiple linear regression deviates from the real result.Therefore,the principal component regression is used to solve the shortcomings.The result of principal component regression is that the number of ordinary middle schools is negatively correlated with the four influencing factors selected,which is in line with the data.After using regression analysis to study the development of ordinary middle schools in Shandong Province,I have a certain understanding of the overall situation of ordinary middle schools in Shandong Province.Let's take a closer look at the number of ordinary middle schools in 17 regions in Shandong Province.Whether it has the same relationship with the four influencing factors.Through the radar chart,we divide the 17 regions into three classes,anddescribe the relationship between the development of the ordinary middle schools and the four influencing factors in each class.We conclude that the number of ordinary middle schools in 17 regions has a close relation between the total population of each region and the amount of education funds,and has no direct relationship with the per capita GDP and the level of household consumption.Finally,based on the analysis and research of this paper,we give conclusions and suggestions,innovations and deficiencies.