Research On The Demographic Dividend Of Southeast Asian Countries

As an important part of the countries along the "Belt and Road",Southeast Asian countries have promoted regional economic cooperation between China and Southeast Asian countries as an important measure to enhance the level of economic development in Asia as a whole and to achieve common regional economic development.The social entity of population is an important resource for maintaining the development and prosperity of a country or region.The demographic change plays a very important role in the economic growth of a country or region.What are the population structure and trends in Southeast Asian countries,and how does the population contribute to economic development?China has less theoretical and systematic research in this area,so it has the value of in-depth research.At the same time,Yunnan and Guangxi provinces have the dual advantages of being open along the coast and along the coast.They are the connecting belts and junctions of the "Belt and Road" strategic land and sea corridors.They are also important gateways for China's opening to Southeast Asia.The comparative results are conducive to grasping the advantages and disadvantages of China's southwest gateway.In order to better advance the friendly cooperation between Southeast Asian countries along the "Belt and Road",it is of great theoretical value and practical significance to jointly develop a win-win cooperation pattern.Based on the analysis of demographic dividend status and changes in Southeast Asian countries(regions),this paper uses population census data,UNESCO and World Bank data to analyze the impact of Southeast Asian demographic dividends on national economic development and the future of Southeast Asia using population forecasting models and econometric models.Finally,a comparative analysis of the demographic dividend,economic level and education level of Southeast Asia and Southwest China's two provinces and regions is made,and corresponding suggestions are made for trade exchanges,economic cooperation,and population development between China and Southeast Asian countries.The research conclusions of this paper can be summarized as follows:(1)The type of population structure in Southeast Asia from 2010 to 2018 belongs to the stage of demographic dividend.The total social dependency ratio of the four countries in Southeast Asia including Chinese Lai,Singapore,Thailand,and Vietnam is lower than the average level in Southeast Asia.Myanmar,Cambodia,Indonesia,Laos,The total social dependency ratios in the seven countries of Malaysia,the Philippines and East Timor are equal to or higher than the average level in Southeast Asia.Mainly because of the effect of the child rearing ratio,controlling the child population helps to optimize the country's population structure.(2)A comparative analysis of the total labor productivity index found that Singapore has the highest total labor productivity,Indonesia has the lowest total labor productivity,and there is a large gap in the total labor productivity between Southeast Asian countries.The difference between the highest and the lowest is nearly 630,000 yuan.In addition,the small population dependency ratio promotes the country's economic development,and the large population dependency ratio inhibits the country's economic development.Studying the impact of specific factors on demographic dividend and economic development,different countries have different focuses,and it is of strong practical significance to put forward suggestions and opinions to different countries.(3)The forecast of the demographic dividend trends of Southeast Asian countries in the next 10 years shows that Cambodia,Malaysia,the Philippines,and Timor-Leste have not entered the "demographic dividend" window of opportunity during 2020-2030.Brunei,Indonesia,Thailand,and Vietnam will step out of the demographic dividend opportunity window between 2020 and 2030.Myanmar and Singapore have been in the demographic dividend stage between 2020 and 2030.Laos country's population window of opportunity for 2020-2030 population demographic dividend(4)This paper compares and analyzes the demographic dividend status,economic development level,and educational level of the two provinces in southwest China,and the differences with Southeast Asia or Southeast Asian countries.In terms of demographic dividend,the type of population structure is better than the overall level of Southeast Asia.In terms of total labor productivity,the two provinces in the southwest of China,Yunnan and Guangxi,are second only to Thailand in Southeast Asian countries,and the employed population creates economic value above the medium level.In terms of education level,the education level of the two provinces in southwest China is better than some countries in Southeast Asia.The advantages are obvious.The shortcomings are that the old-age dependency ratio is very high and the birth rate is low,which is not conducive to future population development trends and requires great attention(5)The conclusion of comparative analysis between China and Southeast Asia is that the child dependency ratio of other Southeast Asian countries is higher than that of China except Singapore and Thailand.The number of children in China is small and the birth rate is low.This feature will lead to the aggravation of the national population burden in the future,which is not conducive to the future population development trend of China.In addition,the elderly dependency ratio of Southeast Asian countries is lower than the overall level of China,that is,the proportion of the elderly population in China has exceeded that of Southeast Asian countries,and a series of problems such as the burden of elderly dependency caused by the large proportion of the elderly population need to be paid great attention.In terms of economic level,China's total labor productivity in Southeast Asian countries ranks the fourth only after Malaysia,which is in the middle and upper level.As far as education level is concerned,China's education popularization rate is high and has great advantages.