Study On The Interaction Between China's Greenhouse Gas Emissions,Economic Growth And Industrial Structure

Since the reform and opening up,China's economic development is rising rapidly,the scale of the industry continues to expand and extend.But behind the rapid development is the cost of the environment,and the environmental consequences of overdevelopment are gradually being to appear.The contradiction among energy,economy,and environment has become increasingly prominent.Among them,global warming caused by a large number of greenhouse gas emissions has attracted widespread attention worldwide.The International Energy Agency(I.EA)survey shows that in 2018,China's carbon emissions accounted for about 28.6%of the word.It can be seen that,as a major producer and emitter of greenhouse gases(GHG),our country bears extremely important responsibilities in the global greenhouse gas emission reduction actions.In the process of reducing greenhouse gas emissions,a comprehensive economic deployment is necessary.While maintaining steady economic growth and promoting the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure,it is necessary to complete the phased goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.Therefore,how to effectively control GHG emissions has become the common theme of all countries.GHG emissions,industrial structure and economic growth are a complex system.They influence each other,support each other,and restrict each other.Realizing the long-term coordinated development between greenhouse gas emissions,industrial structure and economic growth has become a realistic proposition that my country and other countries in the world are paying attention to and urgently need to be resolved.This paper studies the relationships among China's GHG emissions,industrial structure and economic growth from 2000 to 2017.From the perspective of energy consumption,the GHG(CO2,CH4,and N2O)emissions are measured at two levels,the overall and different industrial structures,and the current mainstream measurement models are used for empirical research:The Granger causality test method is used to study the relationship among the three variables,the extended STIRPAT model is used to study the relationship between GHG emissions and industrial structure,the Tapio decoupling model is used to study the relationship between GHG emissions and economic growth,and the gray correlation analysis model is used to study the relationship between industrial structure and economic growth.In the analysis process of this paper,it is found that although the total GHG emissions show an upward trend,the increase rate has decreased significantly.The results of the study found that:First,the industrial structure and GHG emissions,economic growth are both two-way Granger causality;Second,the impact of different industrial sectors on GHG emissions is significantly different,but for the three greenhouse gases CO2,CH4 and N2O,the industry has the greatest promotion effect;Third,at present,China's total greenhouse gas emissions and economic growth has shown a "not decoupled-weak decoupling" stage characteristics,it showed a "?",shape of non-decoupling effect from 2002 to 2006,and a "wave" shape of weak decoupling effect from 2006 to 2017;Fourth,the industrial structure has a strong correlation with economic growth,the correlation between industry and GDP has been maintained at a relatively high level.Compared with the existing research,the main contributions of this paper are:(1)In terms of greenhouse gas research objects,this paper is not limited to carbon emission,but includes CH4 and N2O into the accounting scope,with CO2,CH4 and N2O as the main research objects;(2)The industrial structure is divided in detail to supplement the greenhouse gas emissions research of all the industrial sectors in China;(3)Bring greenhouse gas emissions,economic growth and industrial structure into a unified framework,a systematic and comprehensive empirical study is carried out from the variable relationship among the three to the variable relationship between the two to fill up the lack of research on this issue by domestic and foreign scholars.The research results of this paper will provide a reference for our country to reach the goal of energy saving and emission reduction as soon as possible and formulate corresponding green economic development policies.