The DSGE Models For The Dynamic Effect Of Carbon Emission Policy In China

As the cornerstone and essential material foundation to global economic development,energy has been playing a very important and essential role in promoting the development of the human society.From the current distribution of energy structure in the world,traditional energy is still the first choice for mankind.But consuming and using traditional energy would be more likely to cause a series of problems,including the sudden increase in greenhouse gas content such as carbon dioxide in the atmosphere,global climate change,impediment to human destiny.Therefore,reducing traditional energy consumption and controlling carbon emissions are the difficulties and challenges faced by many countries.Carbon emission reduction is a double-edged sword.Because the policy of reducting carbon emission will increase the cost of enterprises,reduce the output of enterprises,and then stunted economic growth.However,such policy can encourage enterprises to strengthen technological innovation,increase R&D investment and promote low-carbon production.Based on this problem,studying the dynamic effect of carbon emission policy in China is of great practical significance for peaking and neutralizing carbon dioxide emissions.Based on the macro background of carbon emission reduction,supported by the theory of low-carbon economy,this paper simulates the carbon emission policy of our country under the framework of New Keynesian,combined with the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model(DSGE).By describing the economic behaviors of the family sector,the enterprise sector and the government sector,the writer,building five DSGE impact models,including the impact for carbon tax rate,equipment investment,R&D funding,exogenous technological progress and the governance of government,is to simulate the effect of carbon emission policy in China.Specifically,in order to construct the family utility function,the paper introduces the variables of consumption,labor and carbon emissions in the behavior equation of the family sector,Price stickiness exists in the research of enterprise department,so the enterprise department is divided into intermediate production enterprise and final product assembly enterprise.The intermediate product production enterprise is the monopoly competition enterprise which monopolizes the price.For obtaining the maximum profit,such enterprise produces the intermediate product with differences through inputting the production factors like labor,capital and technology.In the production process of intermediate enterprises,carbon dioxide will inevitably be emitted into the air.Considering that China has adopted economic means to achieve carbon emission reduction,this paper takes the economic means of carbon emission reduction into the equation of intermediate enterprises.After assembling and reproducing the intermediate products,the final product enterprises sell them to consumers at market prices.In this process,as the receiver of the market price,the final product enterprise is a fully competitive enterprise,and the products produced by it are homogeneous.In order to explore the effect of government governance on carbon emission reduction,this paper brings the administrative means of carbon emission reduction into the behavior equation of government departments.Based on the complete construction of the model,this paper,lessoning from the existing researches,the actual situation and policy guidance of China,calibrates the parameters in the model reasonably,and then analyzes the impulse response diagram of the model through language R,which aims to observe the dynamic effect and trend of carbon emission policy under various exogenous shocks,and then give reasonable carbon emission reduction measures and appropriate policies.With the help of the dynamic analysis of DSGE,we can make a reasonable evaluation of China's carbon tax policy through theoretically explore the effectiveness of carbon tax policy under exogenous shocks.And the DSGE model can help us to observe the effect of economic variables and carbon emission reduction under various exogenous shocks.A win-win situation for carbon reduction and economic growth will be within sight.Research shows:(1)The progress of exogenous technology can significantly improve the overall technical level of enterprises at the beginning of the period,and the effect of influence after reaching the peak gradually falls back;at the same time,enterprises are dependent on the progress of exogenous technology.(2)Carbon reduction can be achieved by a carbon tax rate,but the effect of emission reduction has changed from striking to weak,and the carbon tax has an crowding-out effect on total output,consumption,R&D funds and the technology stock of enterprises.(3)The impact of equipment investment impact on total output,carbon emissions,enterprise technology stock,consumption and R&D funding trend is the same.But the difference is that the impact on consumption is always positive,the impact on the other four variables from negative to positive.(4)The environmental governance from government will significantly reduce carbon emissions and the intensity of carbon emission,and also have a positive effect on consumption and total output.(5)The technology conversion efficiency of R&D funds can obviously improve consumption,increase the technology stock of enterprises,increase total output and reduce the intensity of carbon emission.