Simulation Of Ecosystem Services Change In Response To Land Use Dynamics Under Climate Change

Ecosystem services are the environmental condition and utility formed and maintained by the ecosystem to facilitate the survival and development of humans.Ecosystem services are the foundation of human survival and are closely related to human well-being.Climate change and land use changes are the two main factors that drive changes in ecosystem service provision and the transition between different types of ecosystem services.As the main driving force of climate change,changes in atmospheric composition will affect the biochemical processes and nutrient cycles of surface organisms,which will have a series of indirect effects on the earth's biophysical system.The land use pattern can directly alter ecosystem types,landscape patterns,and ecological processes,thereby affecting the ability of ecosystems to provide ecosystem services.The intensification of climate change and the rapid changes in land use have greatly affected the structure and services of ecosystems,and significantly affected ecosystem services and socio-economic development.The Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)is the economic belt with the largest population and the largest industrial scale in China.Therefore,projecting how ecosystem services respond to future land use and climate change in YREB is critical for sustainable development in China.This study simulated future land use patterns under eight shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways(SSP-RCP)scenarios with the future land use simulation(FLUS)model,and further explored the response of ecosystem services.The projections show that SSP3-7.0 and SSP4-3.4 scenarios predict the largest change in cropland.In SSP3-7.0,the area of cropland decreased the most and SSP4-3.4has the largest increase in cropland.The grassland in SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 had decreased sharply.By 2100,the grassland area was only 6,100 km~2,accounting for less than 1%of the total land area.The grassland reduction mainly occurred in northwestern Sichuan and Yunnan.Due to land use change,all scenarios except SSP1-1.9 and SSP4-3.4 consistently predict ecosystem service values(ESV)increase,ranging from 108.08 billion CNY to469.84 billion CNY.Among all the increased scenarios,SSP3-7.0 showed the greatest increase.In SSP4-3.4,future ecosystem supply services will decrease the most,about46.59 billion CNY(decreased about 6%compared to 2015).Regulating services contribute the most to the total ESV change.For supporting services,ESV increase is witnessed in SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0 and SSP4-6.0,while ESV decrease is found in the other five scenarios.Cultural services account for the smallest proportion of overall ecosystem services(less than 3%).For the provisioning services,their ESV are expected to decrease in more than half of the counties in the YREB region under SSP5-8.5,SSP1-1.9,SSP5-3.4OS and SSP4-3.4.Overall,the scenario analysis can support the exploration of the impacts of future climate change on ecosystem services and promote policy making to conserve and restore the regional ecosystem services.